Democracy DigestThe Bulletin of the Transatlantic Democracy Network - www.demdigest.net
March 29, 2007
Inside this Issue:
Egypt – Latest Stage in Democracy Backlash … Polling stations were virtually deserted Monday in Egypt after opposition groups called for a boycott of a referendum on constitutional amendments that democrats and human rights groups condemned as the latest instance of democratic backsliding. After activists took to the streets, forces beat protesters, arrested around 20 bloggers and activists, confiscated journalists' cameras and seized all copies of the opposition Al-Karama newspaper. The Egyptian Organization for Human Rights reported rigging in hundreds of polling stations. In the southern Asyut governorate it monitored local municipality officials broadcasting loudhailer warnings that non-voters would be fined. Public employees were forced to cast ballots under threat of pay cuts. Military production minister Sayid Mashaal arrived at a polling station in the southern Cairo suburb of Helwan in a motorcade of five black Mercedes cars to ensure that workers from state-owned military factories were bused to the polls. The regime has taken advantage of opposition division and disillusion to consolidate authoritarian rule under the guise of reform. On March 19, the People's Assembly – controlled by Hosni Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party -- passed a constitutional amendment package by a large majority. Opposition deputies, including representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition group, boycotted the vote in protest at the lack of consultation and the speed with which the changes were railroaded through the assembly. The amendments were put to a national referendum just one week later, leaving no time for public debate. The opposition Wafd Party reported that an opinion poll conducted by the Egyptian Committee for Supporting Democracy found 66 per cent of respondents opposed the constitutional amendments. The amendments constitute the most dramatic change to Egypt's political institutions since 1971. But amendments to Article 179 and Article 88 have prompted most criticism. Changes to the former effectively constitutionalize the emergency laws, introduced after the 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, entrenching the security forces extensive powers to monitor private communications and send suspects to military courts. The amendment to Article 88 suspends judicial supervision of elections, ending one of the few remaining checks on election fraud. Polls will be supervised by a vaguely-defined "supreme independent council". Egypt's judiciary has repeatedly clashed with the Mubarak regime since judges resisted attempts to rig the 2005 legislative and presidential elections. "These amendments are the death knell for democracy," said Nasser Amin, director of the Arab Centre for the Independence of the Judiciary. "The regime is opting for gangland tactics [rather] than the politics of state." Other amendments are manifestly designed to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood repeating its electoral success in the December 2005 parliamentary elections. Political parties based on religion are banned and presidential candidates must come from a recognized party that enjoys at least a 3 percent share of parliamentary representation. Introducing a party list electoral system to replace the current candidate-centered system will also hit the Brotherhood which is legally banned and would be reliant on existing parties which are already severely restricted. … Prompts Internal Opposition … Supporters of the amendments argue that they will "cleanse our political life from the damned combination [of] religion and politics." Furthermore, they charge, they neutralize the potent advantage the Islamists enjoy by using – or abusing – religion for sectarian ends. "The separation of religion from partisan politics is a step in the right direction," argues Amir Taheri. "Egypt cannot build a democracy by setting the stage for religious wars." But, rather than weakening the Brotherhood, the constitutional amendments would have the opposite effect, suggests Hafez Abu Seada, secretary-general of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights, by boosting its credibility at the expense of other forces. Other analysts suggest that "these 'reforms' will serve only to strengthen the ruling party's stranglehold and send Egypt farther down the road toward authoritarian rule." By resorting to repression of the Brotherhood, the regime is not only making a mockery of the American push for democracy in the Middle East, say Amr Hamzawy and Dina Bishara. It also "risks its own stability by slamming the political door in the face of a popular force that has grown increasingly committed to peaceful political opposition. Disaffected members may find an outlet in militant activism against the government as they did in the 1980s and 1990s." The amendments do increase the powers of the legislature and remove much of the socialist terminology of the Nasserist era. But opposition activists believe the amendments could generate political violence by foreclosing possibilities for peaceful political activity, particularly by the Brotherhood. "The opposition will learn, I think, the futility of their mild reformist strategies," says Mohammed Waked, an activist with the Kifaya [Enough] movement. "They will either move outside the system and adopt strategies that are more confrontational or they will die and leave the space to other forces that would be willing to do so." The changes amount to an effort by the Egyptian regime to "increase the appearance of greater balance among the branches of government and of greater opportunities for political parties, while in fact limiting real competition strictly and keeping power concentrated," note Carnegie experts. The amendments are designed to "facilitate the ascendancy of Gamal Mubarak [son of President Hosni Mubarak] to power and ... to curtail the potential rise of any strong confrontational opposition," argues democracy activist Rabab al-Mehdi, a professor at the American University in Cairo. A "constitutional coup" has occurred, charges Mohamed el-Sayed Said, an analyst at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. "The movement calling for genuine reform is totally frustrated," he told the Financial Times. The government is distorting the reform process to enhance presidential power, pursuing a Chinese model, liberalizing the economy while maintaining political repression. Meaningful reform requires greater unity amongst Egypt's disparate opposition forces, supported by the West, to increase the pressure on Mubarak, says Carnegie's Michele Dunne. "Egypt is in the early stages of a leadership succession," she said before the constitutional package was finalized. "It may swing the country towards greater openness and competition - or towards consolidated authoritarianism." Subsequent events hint strongly at the gloomier prospect. … But External Criticism is Muted… Just two years ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice chose Cairo to lament the fact that for 60 years, the US "pursued stability at the expense of democracy," but had "achieved neither. Now, we are taking a different course." But US response to Egypt's backsliding has been disappointing to the region's democrats. "The process of reform ... is difficult. It's going to have its ups and downs," Secretary Rice stated. "It's not a matter to try to dictate to Egypt how this will unfold." At least the US administration expressed disappointment at recent developments. At the time of writing, the European Union has yet to comment. Indeed, this month Egypt and the European Union signed a joint action plan worth 558 million euros ($733 million) to Cairo over four years. The agreement, agreed under the rubric of the EU's Neighbourhood Policy, sets out objectives designed to help modernize and liberalize the Egyptian state and economy. The plan contains provisions for encouraging political participation, election assistance, strengthening civil society, ensuring judicial independence, and promoting human rights and basic freedoms. But such provisions have not prompted EU politicians or diplomats to criticize the constitutional shift. "Some of the Action Plans with Mediterranean partners have already been elaborated and negotiated secretly between the EU and Mediterranean governments without any consultation of civil society," according to a joint statement from the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network and the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies. "Egyptian civil society has not been consulted," the statement said. "This contradicts all commitments to support and involve Mediterranean civil society in the democratisation process and improvement of the human rights situation." The EU is the second largest donor to Egypt after the United States but analysts doubt the EU would ever threaten to link aid money to performance benchmarks on democracy or human rights. "The aim is not to penalise but rather to encourage. The European approach will be very patient, very incremental and very supportive," said a European diplomat. "The European Union waves a carrot and not a big stick. There is positive conditionality in that countries that move faster will gain extra incentives," he added. The EU's ambivalence towards democracy in the region is a source of frustration for Egypt's liberals and democrats. "They have a big file on human rights violations and democracy repression," says Gameela Ismail, spokeswoman for the opposition Ghad Party and wife of its imprisoned leader Ayman Nour. "The European Union always uses these agreements for public relations to prove it is committed to human rights and so on, but once it comes to real implementation it has always been written in vague terms," another democracy activist adds. Yet Timothy Garton Ash argues that Europe could yet succeed where the US has faltered, suggesting that its potential capacity to support democratic reform in Egypt remains a matter of political commitment. "Will [Europeans] keep working away at strengthening the ligaments of pluralism in the Egyptian state (which is by no means monolithic) and in civil society?," he asks. "Will Europe have the imagination to spin a web of human contacts across the Mediterranean - for example, offering scholarships to large numbers of Egyptian students, scholars, writers and journalists - knowing that in the long term this will leaven Egyptian society with new experiences and ideas?" The danger, Garton Ash concedes, is that this will remain just "a paper facade, behind which 27 European governments will go on pursuing their own national and commercial interests, while Eurocrats concentrate on purely technocratic issues." Repression Targets Muslim Brotherhood Alongside the drive to push through the constitutional amendments, the regime has conducted a major crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in which hundreds of activists have been jailed, including chief strategist Khairat el-Shatir. The regime targeted prominent business figures associated with the organization's fund-raising and management. The assets of 29 Brotherhood members known to be movement financiers were frozen by court order. "Stability cannot be achieved by depriving social and political leaders of civil justice," argues Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood's executive council often touted as a leading moderate Islamist. "Nor can it be achieved by resisting democracy and excluding the largest political force in the country from political life," he continues. "By closing the doors to dialogue, the state is opening a door to chaos and extremism." The ratification of the constitutional amendments is a "constitutional revolution", claims Mahdi Akef, the Brotherhood's general guide. But the movement was criticized for rejecting collective resignation from parliament as a tactic to oppose the amendments. "At least this step would've maintained their credibility and helped expose the ruling regime," the widely-read Al-Arabiya newspaper argued. But it remains widely popular, prompting observers to suggest that the West must engage with the Islamists if any push for Arab democracy is to be credible. "Opening a relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood would signal to ruling regimes and opposition groups in the region that the United States is committed to promoting democracy," some analysts argue. This could be a productive initiative at a time when the only point on which Egyptian reformers, autocrats and theocrats appear to agree is in their critical attitude toward American democratization efforts. But others suggest that the Brotherhood's commitment to democratic norms remains highly questionable, citing its its "totalitarian structures" and lack of transparency. The pragmatists and technocrats associated with Gamal Mubarak, the president's son and all-but-heir apparent, defend the constitutional amendments as a process of incremental reform ultimately designed to reconcile democratic opening with stability. "If you open up the Arab world, those who will exploit the new democratic conditions are anti-American and Islamist forces," claims an associate of Gamal Mubarak. "We need to find a way to integrate all political forces, including the Islamists, without running the risk of turning the country into a religious state," he said. That risk is overstated, the Brotherhood argues, and only invoked to perpetuate authoritarian rule. "We are believers in democracy, multiparty elections and the peaceful transfer of power," says Mohammed Habib, a leading Brotherhood official. "We just want a civil state with a religious essence where laws passed by the legislature are in line with the principles of the Shariah." One of the dirty little secrets of Egyptian politics is that government squashes secular opponents while allowing Islamist opposition (and leftist groups) freer rein, including privileged access to the media and more scope to campaign for political office" notes Hala Mustafa, editor of the Cairo-based al-Dimuqratiya (Democracy) and US academic Augustus Richard Norton. "Without a freer realm for a vibrant secular liberal debate, there will be little more than cosmetic change," they argue. "An obvious litmus test for reform is not just that responsible challenges to arbitrary government are possible without retaliation, but whether respected liberals will be placed in significant positions within the regime." The claim that some US officials are in favor of engaging the Brotherhood has fed speculation on differences between "friends" and "enemies" of the Islamists within the US Administration. Not so, says Scott Carpenter, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and coordinator of the Middle East Partnership Initiative. "We believe that all political players desirous of political participation have to comply with the principles of democracy, pluralism, minority rights, market economy and modernization," he told leading Arab newspaper Asharq al Awsat. "I do not believe there are friends and enemies. Rather there is a pragmatic process concerning Islamists and other political forces." Europe at 50 – Democratic Paradigm or "Reluctant Debutante"? The European Union has been the most successful single experiment in promoting democracy and peace, argues José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president and a former Portuguese prime minister. In 1957, he notes, only 15 out the EU's 27 member states were democracies and some were not even independent states. In the Berlin Declaration marking this week's 50th birthday of the European Union, the member states "expressly state our commitment to continue promoting democracy, stability and prosperity beyond the borders of the European Union", adding that "the importance of this commitment cannot be overestimated." Some observers suggest the EU represents a new paradigm for peaceful development, integration and democratization. "It is now Europe, not the United States, that's held up as a new lamp unto nations," argues Andrew Moravcsik, director of the European Union Program at Princeton University. Yet others suggest that Europe's economic sclerosis and demographic "birth dearth" are harbingers of long-term decline. Furthermore, as the case of Egypt attests (see above) the EU faces the challenge of devising more innovative instruments and mechanisms that replicate the success of its "gravity model" in countries and regions which have no prospect of EU membership. Without the imperatives provided by the Copenhagen Criteria underpinning the accession process, the EU has floundered in promoting democracy in its periphery, as the failure of the Barcelona Process and the shortcomings of the European Neighbourhood Policy confirm. Evidently, the EU model cannot be exported, replicated or imposed in other parts of the world. The 27-nation European Union criticized Zimbabwe's government at the U.N. Human Rights Council this week for its violent suppression of demonstrators and activists opposing President Robert Mugabe's regime. The arrest of Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, confirmed international concerns. Police stormed the offices of the MDC on Wednesday and arrested Tsvangirai shortly before he was to address journalist about recent political violence that led to him being hospitalized. South Africa declined to join in the criticism and stressed the importance of dialogue with Harare. Algeria insisted the UNHRC was not an appropriate forum to discuss human rights in Zimbabwe, while Iran defended Zimbabwe. The UNHRC has come under criticism from democracy and human rights activists for providing a forum for dictators and authoritarian regimes. Tsvangirai's arrest came as regional leaders gathered for a meeting of the Southern African Development Community in Tanzania. The 14-nation SADC is supposed to promote democracy and development in the region but summit host Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete denied they would put pressure on the embattled Zimbabwean president. "Pressure? We are in a meeting not pressure," Kikwete said. The crisis in Zimbabwe raises questions about the international community's rights and responsibilities in interfering with or commenting on the internal affairs of a sovereign state, note Nobel laureate Desmond Tutu and former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. The principle of non-interference, "exceptionally convenient for dictators", they argue, "is a principle that, if consistently observed, would have shielded the apartheid government in South Africa from external criticism and from the economic sanctions and political pressure that forced it to change… [and] would have prevented racist Rhodesia from becoming Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe from ever coming to power." Democracy and civil society groups have been prominent in the opposition to Mugabe's rule, including the Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights, the Crisis in Zimbabwe Committee, and the http://www.nca.org.zw/ National Constitutional Assembly. The country's trade union movement has also taken a leadership position in the anti-Mugabe camp. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai is a former union activist and official. South Africa, Once a Beneficiary, Snubs Solidarity Democrats and civil society activists, not least the veterans of the international anti-apartheid movement, are vexed at South Africa's recent actions on democracy and human rights. They are nonplussed by Pretoria's apparent indifference to the plight of neighboring Zimbabwe (if not de facto support for the Mugabe regime), it's alliance with China and Russia to veto a Security Council censure of Burma's military junta, and its recent attempt to scupper sanctions against Iran. "Instead of furthering an agenda based on the protection and promotion of human rights," said the opposition Democratic Alliance, the country's second-largest political party, "we are more concerned with using bureaucratic excuses to shield tyrants and despots from international scrutiny." "Democracy promotion has never been a core focus of our foreign policy, it has been at best a by-product," says Steven Friedman of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa. "The anti-apartheid 'struggle' was essentially a battle against racism. Democracy was a happy by-product, which the post-1994 government has largely protected. But it was a means to an end - freeing black people from subordination - not an end in itself." Le Quoc Quan, a lawyer and recent fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy, was arrested on March 8 in his hometown in Nghe An province, only 4 days after his return to Vietnam. Quan had been on a congressionally-funded Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellowship, pursuing independent research on the role of civil society. "It is a deep insult to the United States that the Vietnamese regime would harass someone in this way who has just participated in a citizen exchange program supported by the US Congress and Department of State," said NED President Carl Gershman. An independent lawyer and consultant to the World Bank and UNDP, Quan's incarceration is the latest instance of a recent clampdown in what Human Rights Watch calls "one of the worst crackdowns on peaceful dissidents in 20 years." This repressive turn marks the end of a relative liberalization which the regime tolerated to facilitate accession to the World Trade Organization. But analysts suggest it also reflects an internal conflict between those within the Communist Party conflict between those who favor social and political opening and a hard-line "China faction" favoring economic openness allied with political repression. The regime is also concerned at the growing influence of a new generation of younger professionals with a more internationalist outlook and committed to more open governance. As Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem recently arrived in Washington, members of the U.S. House of Representatives demanded the immediate release of Nguyen Van Dai, Le Thi Cong Nhan and other political prisoners and prisoners of conscience. "These individuals are the Vaclav Havels of Vietnam," said Congressman Chris Smith. The National Endowment for Democracy is urging the government of Vietnam to treat him according to international human rights standards; and to release him. Concerned individuals and organizations who wish to take action are urged to register a protest directly with the Embassy of Vietnam in Washington, DC:
Minister Counselor (Political): Mr. DANG Dinh Quy (202) 861 0737 x230 Minister Counselor - Deputy Chief of Mission: Mr. VU Dang Dzung (202) 861 0737 x 223 Minister Counselor (Congressional Liaison): Ms. NGUYEN Nguyet Nga (202) 861 0737 x 225 Counselor (Political): Mr. NGUYEN Van Trung (202) 861 0737 x335 Embassy of Vietnam in the United States 1233 20th St NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20036 Tel. 202.861.0737 Fax 202.861.0917 info@vietnamembassy.us - consular@vietnamembassy.us www.vietnamembassy-usa.org/ But, a few days later, on March 8, security forces attacked a peaceful rally organized to celebrate International Women's Day. Iran's women's movement is at the start of a thousand mile journey", says Jamila Kadivar, an Iranian journalist and writer. "If you ask me what the most important political issue in Iran is, my answer would be: women." WITHOUT COMMENT The US government needs new institutions, backed by serious investments, to wage and win the war for public opinion. This means restoring the United States Information Agency to independent status and funding it to the hilt. It also means treating entities such as the National Endowment for Democracy as more than sideshows. The timing could not be more important, because whatever the outcome of the Coalition's efforts in Iraq, one thing is already clear: for the foreseeable future, the United States and its allies will promote democracy through peaceful means, or not at all. - William Galston, Senior Fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution and co-editor of The Democratic Strategist. In the darkest of times…… illumination may well come less from the theories and concepts than from the uncertain, flickering and often weak light that some men and women, in their lives and works, will kindle under almost all such circumstances and shed over the time span that was given them on earth. – Hannah Arendt, preface to Men in Dark Times. The lesson of the politics of the Arab-Israeli conflict of the last several decades is that a leadership that elevates victim-hood into the be-all and end-all of politics brings untold suffering and misery upon its own people. Given political power, this kind of a leadership will in turn victimise, as a whole body of knowledge in sociology, political psychology and history will confirm. - Kanan Makiya, Brandeis University; founder of the Iraq Memory Foundation; and author of The Republic of Fear: The Politics of Modern Iraq, among other works. Deputy Director, International Forum for Democratic Studies, National Endowment for Democracy. Assist the Vice President for Research and Studies in managing and directing all aspects of the International Forum for Democratic Studies; work with the Vice President and functional Directors to establish performance goals and to develop new Forum programs, especially in the area of promoting the translation and dissemination of literature on democracy; plan and manage Forum conferences and meetings, and direct the Network of Democracy Research Institutes; serve as liaison between the Forum and the NED program staff; represent the Forum in dealing with outside groups and organizations. The Deputy Director will also be responsible for the management of special projects and for working with the Vice President to establish organizational priorities and insure effective operational management. S/he will be expected to work with Forum co-directors in overseeing the overall operations of the International Forum, including budgeting and personnel management; manage the preparation of proposals for developing and sustaining Forum programs and of reports on Forum activities; develop new Forum initiatives, especially in the area of promoting the translation and dissemination of literature on democracy, and manage these programs; manage the planning and organization of Forum conferences and events, and direct the Network of Democracy Research Institutes; act as principal liaison between the Forum and the NED program staff, ensuring that Forum programs help illuminate the intellectual challenges faced by program officers and are responsive to their concerns; represent the Forum's co-directors at conferences and meetings with visitors and outside groups and organizations. Knowledge and skill requirements: Masters in international relations, political science, or a related field required, Ph.D. strongly preferred; 10-15 years applicable experience, with 5-7 years of nonprofit management experience preferred; a record of scholarly achievement and publications; knowledge of and experience with democracy promotion. To Apply: Resumes or inquiries should be sent to forum@ned.org. Kosovo: Resident Director The successful candidate will have strong leadership and management skills, coupled with significant political party organization experience at a senior level. The successful candidate will possess familiarity with parliamentary governing systems. Flexibility and the capacity to cope with a rapidly changing and uncertain political environment is a must. The ability to effectively communicate skills and experience as a trainer or advisor is essential. Familiarity with or experience in Kosovo or the Balkans is highly desirable. Expected start date will be May 2007. This position will be supported by NDI's Kosovo staff as well as by NDI staff in Washington, D.C. Salary is commensurate with experience. A generous benefits package is provided, including in-country housing allowance. Interested applicants can apply now using NDI's on-line resume tool. Please cite the exact position title in the cover letter. International Republican Institute Program Officer – Exchanges, Freedom House Analyst in Foreign Policy Legislation, Congressional Research Service Position is offered at the GS-12 level ($66,767- $86,801); promotion potential is to the GS-15 level ($110,363-$143,471). Interested applicants must either apply online (preferred) at http://www.loc.gov/crsinfo or call (202) 707-5627 to request an applicant job kit. Please refer to vacancy #070082 in all correspondence. Applications must be received by April 19th, 2007. CRS is the public policy research arm of the U.S. Congress and is fully committed to workforce diversity. Global Integrity – Researchers Wanted Interested journalists, researchers, social scientists, and academic experts from any country with expertise in governance and corruption issues should send a resume/curriculum vitae (including full contact information and names of three references) to info@globalintegrity.org no later than April 15, 2007. Professionalism, objectivity, and independence are critical qualifications; a working proficiency in English is strongly preferred. Global Integrity typically pays lead reporters approximately US$1,250 for preparing the Reporter's Notebooks, lead researchers approximately US$2,000 for scoring the Integrity Indicators, and readers US$250 for each country they read for (some readers read for more than one country and are compensated additionally). To learn more about collaborating on the 2007 Global Integrity Report, go here. Additional information about Global Integrity is available here. Youth as a Force for Change An essay contest from the Center for Private Enterprise, the NED-affiliated democracy institute, gives young people the opportunity to share ideas about citizenship, democratic and market-oriented reform, youth leadership, and the ways that their country can create avenues for youth to participate in the political and economic spheres. Get thinking, get involved, and use your own experiences to develop concrete solutions to these development issues. A $1,000 honorarium will be given for each winning essay. You can download a flyer about the contest, including guidelines, at http://www.cipe.org/programs/women/pdf/CIPEcontest.pdf. Visit the essay contest website. World Youth Movement for Democracy Essay Contest Essays may be submitted in Arabic, English, French, Portuguese, Russian, or Spanish. All essays will be reviewed by the Working Group members of the WYMD. Three finalists will be selected from each of six regions (Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa), and five from Asia. The finalist essays will be included in an international publication. From the regional finalists, two international finalists will be selected to receive a scholarship to participate in the Fifth Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy, taking place in Kiev, Ukraine during April 2008. (Please note you must be over age 18 by April 2008 to qualify for participation in the WMD Assembly). Submissions must be under 2500 words and emailed to wymdcontest@youthlink.org no later than April 15. Please include your full name, birthday, country, contact information (mailing address, email address, and phone number), and affiliated organization (if applicable). For more information about this essay contest or the World Youth Movement for Democracy, please visit www.wymd.youthlink.org or send an email to wymdcontest@youthlink.org. 29 March 2007. 7.0 for 7.30 PM, Karabakh: a dangerous frozen conflict. The Frontline Club, 13 Norfolk Place, London W.2 (nearest Tube: Paddington) Chaired by Ziba Norman, Director of the Transatlantic Institute. Speakers include Thomas Goltz (award-winning journalist and author of "Azerbaijan Diary", "Chechnya Diary"...) Mark Grigoryan (BBC journalist and analyst, co-founder of the Caucasus Media Institute); Thomas de Waal (author of "Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War") www.t-i.org.uk April 02, 2007. Cuba's Transition After Castro. 11:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Falk Auditorium, Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036. The Brookings Institution in partnership with the Cuba Study Group will host a Focus on Cuba event featuring the release of the results of a new Cuba Research Institute, Florida International University poll of Cuban-Americans. These poll results reveal how Cuban-Americans view the likelihood and opportunity for change in Cuba today, and how it compares with their views in 2003. This poll, as well as the results of other recently released surveys of both Cubans and Cuban-Americans, will be reviewed, including a discussion of whether the recent transition from Fidel Castro to Raul Castro has made a difference. The implications of these issues for the future of U.S.–Cuba policy will be a major focus of this discussion. Moderator: Carlos Pascual, Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution. Panelists: Eusebio Mujal-Leon, Professor and Director, Cuba XXI Project, Georgetown University. Damian Fernandez, Professor, Department of International Relations, Vice Provost, Florida International University; Director, Cuba Research Institute; Guillermo Grenier, Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Florida International University; Hugh Gladwin, Director, Institute for Public Opinion Research, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Florida International University. Registration here. Contact: Brookings Office of Communications - Phone: 202/797-6105. April 4, 3:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. "A Dialogue on the Future of Democracy" Barry Lowenkron, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State; Ken Wollack, President, National Democracy Institute. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. April 5th, 4:00 pm - 5:30pm. From Solidarity to Martial Law: The Polish Crisis of 1980-1981. 5th Floor Conference Room, Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20004. Malcolm Byrne, Deputy Director and Director of Research, National Security Archive, and commentary from Douglas MacEachin, former head of Soviet Analysis, Central Intelligence Agency. Just over 25 years ago, on December 13, 1981, a uniquely Polish experiment in popular democracy came to a brutal end with the invocation of martial law. For 16 months, a nation-wide movement spearheaded by the Solidarity trade union pushed back with unprecedented effect at Poland's communist authorities' efforts to wipe out or at least to limit the growing threat to their rule. Now, a new compilation of previously secret materials from Soviet, Polish, East European and American archives presents a fresh account of that extraordinary period. April 18, 2007. 5:30 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. The Foreign Policy Association, the National Endowment for Democracy and the Americas Society invite you to a New York Democracy Forum lecture on "Democracy or Populism: Responding to the Crisis in Latin America," featuring The Honorable Alejandro Toledo President of Peru 2001-2006. 680 Park Avenue (Northwestern corner of 68th Street), New York. REGISTER ONLINE. April 12, 2007: The Community of Democracies: Who is in, Who is out? 2:00-3:30 p.m. Root Room, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. This event will present the recommendations of the International Advisory Committee (IAC) to the Community of Democracies (CD), highlighting those countries that should be invited to join the CD's biennial ministerial meeting this November in Bamako, Mali as participants or observers, and those that should not be invited at all. Speakers include Morton Halperin, member of the IAC and Director of U.S. Advocacy, Open Society Institute; Ambassador Mark Palmer, member of the IAC and Vice-Chairman, Freedom House; and Ambassador Abdoulaye Diop, Malian Ambassador to the United States and Chair of the Community of Democracies. To RSVP, email info@demcoalition.org. April 12-13, 2007: Becoming Good Europeans? The New Member States in the European Union, Kenney Auditorium, Johns Hopkins University, School for Advanced International Studies. Conference papers are available for downloading at the conference website here. To RSVP, please call 202-663-5796 or email ntobin@jhu.edu with the words BGE Conference in the subject line. April 13, 8:30 a.m. – 2:30 p.m., GW Alumni House; "Democracy in Latin America: The Recent Wave": Cynthia McClintock, Professor, The Elliott School; Cynthia Arnson, Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center; Kevin Healy, Adjunct Professor, The Elliott School. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. April 20, 6:30 p.m. "Election Monitoring: A Case Study in Democracy and Development" Eric Bjornlund author of Beyond Free and Fair. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. April 24, 9:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. "Democracy Promotion in Africa": George Moose, Ambassador and Adjunct Professor, The Elliott School; Jim Swann, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs; Joel Barkan, Professor Emeritus, University of Iowa; Gina Lambright, Assistant Professor, The Elliott School. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. April 25, 6:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. "The Orange Chronicles - A Documentary on Ukraine". Damian Kolodiy, Independent Filmmaker. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. Saturday 28 - Sunday 29 April 2007 Chinese Approaches to Democracy. A weekend school at Rewley House, 1 Wellington Square, Oxford, UK. Oxford University Continuing Education, in association with the Nordic Confucius Institute, Stockholm. As China extends and consolidates its economic miracle, the reform of authoritarian political institutions presents its next great challenge. In this course, we shall consider the resources for democracy to be found in traditional Chinese philosophy, the different conceptions of democracy that have emerged in China over the past century and the passionate debates about democracy among present-day Chinese Marxist, Liberal, New Left and Neo-Confucian philosophers and other intellectuals. Is there a pathway towards a stable democratic future for Chinese government and society? This weekend, jointly run between OUDCE and the Nordic Confucius Institute in Stockholm, initiates a longer-term programme of events on Chinese philosophy in Oxford and Stockholm. Sessions include: Democracy and Chinese responses to modernity; Contemporary Chinese debates: Democracy with Chinese characteristics? Further details: Short Courses Administrator, OUDCE, 1 Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2JA Tel: (01865) 270380 or email: ppdayweek@conted.ox.ac.uk. May 4, 9:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. "Islamic Political Movements in the Arab World: Contentious and Electoral Politics" a conference hosted by the Middle East Studies program. Director, Nathan Brown. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. September 17, 5:30 – 7:00 p.m."Democratization and Civil War." Jack Snyder, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Relations, Columbia University. Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW Washington DC, 20052 Tel: (202)994-6240 Fax: (202)994-0335. Questions and comments to elliott@gwu.edu. |
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