The State of the Transatlantic Relationship
The condition of the transatlantic relationship is generating a flurry of studies and commentary. In a new book, Free World: Why a Crisis of the West Reveals the Opportunity of our Time, Timothy Garton Ash warns against "Euro-Gaullist fantasies" that envision Europe as a superpower rival to the US. He argues instead for a new transatlantic partnership that can strengthen democracy and development, and that will present an attractive alternative strategy for American unilateralists. He also recommends that citizens lobby Western governments to provide more resources to democracy promotion groups like the US National Endowment for Democracy, the UK's Westminster Foundation and the German party foundations. Ash thinks that a caucus of democracies at the UN -- such as that advocated by supporters of the Community of Democracies -- could become "the mother of all caucuses."

An Arab world "plagued by dictatorship and backwardness" provides an urgent need for transatlantic cooperation, Ash argues in the British magazine Prospect. While US pressure on the likes of Saudi Arabia and Egypt is indispensable, Europe's proximity and vulnerability make a European role in the Middle East even more necessary. By opening negotiations for Turkish membership, the European Union "could signal to the whole wider middle east that a Muslim country with an Islamist government can be accepted as part of the liberal democratic West" (or, as Ash sometimes puts it,"post-West").

A number of others examine this subject by different lights. The New York Times's Richard Bernstein suggests that the trans-Atlantic divide is "growing ever deeper," and insists that the behavior of Abu Ghraib guards has "shaken the sense of moral solidarity that has always been at the core of the trans-Atlantic alliance."

Reginald Dale, editor-in-chief of European Affairs and a fellow of Stanford University's Hoover Institution, challenges the notion that the European Union is excessively inward looking, and preoccupied with economic and monetary matters, enlargement or its new constitution. "Recent U.S.-European tensions are deeply rooted in the ambitions of a more outward looking EU to play a bigger role on the world stage," he says. "The serious efforts now being made by both sides to reinvent trans-Atlantic relations aim to fashion a new, joint approach to global problems, especially the Middle East."

It is sometimes said disdainfully that Europe "speaks softly and carries a big carrot." But Parag Khanna, senior research analyst in governance at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, looks approvingly at an EU approach that stresses "soft power," conditionality and economic incentives to promote democratic change. He argues that, "By exporting the EU legal code -- the acquis communitaire -- and deploying massive economic subsidies and incentives, Europe has managed to embrace unstable nations emerging from Soviet occupation, fostering democratic consolidation all the way to Russia's border."

Spain's new prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, sees differences between North America and Latin America that are as important to him as Donald Rumsfeld's distinction between "New Europe" and "Old Europe." Because of the EU's contribution to democratizing Spain, says Zapatero. "First comes Europe, then our historic ties with Latin America and the Mediterranean, and after that come trans-Atlantic relations."

Pavol Demes, former Slovak foreign minister and currently head of the central and east European division of the German Marshall Fund, sees it from a very different perspective. "Almost all the leading think tanks helping develop democracy here have been from America", he explains. "Under communism, the dissidents were directly or indirectly supported by the United States. We are European, sure, but we really value our relationship with America."

Several European politicians have recently expressed skepticism about the EU's ability to go it alone, or to effect change simply through soft power. Europe has been unable to solve such problems as democratization in Belarus, conflict in the Dnestr enclave in Moldova, or the continuing crises in Kosovo, Albania, and Macedonia, notes Poland's president Aleksander Kwasniewski. "You can't talk of European foreign policy and at the same time be helpless in the face of problems that are much smaller than those of Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," he recently told Gazeta Wyborcza. [Polish News Bulletin, May 6, subscribers only.]

The sometimes provocative former French Prime Minister and Socialist Party leader Michael Rocard bluntly challenges rival French leaders: Europe, he declares, "far from being a single nation in the process of formation...is only a space of proximity governed by democratic norms and a shared rule of law." Rocard explains that "While the mission of this space may not be enough to shift the balance in world affairs, it can help spread peace, respect for human rights, and efficient and respected rules governing global commerce." "Experience has spoken," he concludes, "We have to abandon today the dream of federal Europe as a counterpoint to the United States....the majority of Europeans don't want this."

Serbian Vote Brings Relief to Allies
A pro-democracy reformer who will seek closer ties with the EU and the US won a decisive victory over an ultra-nationalist supporter of Slobodan Milosevic in last Sunday's elections for the presidency of Serbia. According to election officials, Boris Tadic, a former defense minister, defeated Tomislav Nikolic of the extremist Radical party by 53.5% to 45%. Previous rounds of balloting had been declared invalid because of low turn-out.

The Serbian vote had been watched with great concern by the Atlantic democracies and others. The substantial presence of election monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) contributed to an orderly election process. The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy, welcomed the outcome: "We are confident that the election of the new President will contribute to the consolidation and stabilization of democratic institutions in Serbia and strengthen the country's reformist course and European orientation."

The Serbian results eased concerns of those at this week's NATO Summit who agreed to replace NATO's Stabilisation Force (SFOR) in neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina with a new EU-led peacekeeping force (EUFOR) by the end of 2004. A cautionary report by the International Crisis Group had noted that the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina was still rocky, and that there are "some realistic doubts about whether the cash-strapped and far-from-integrated armies of the EU member states are capable of meeting these challenges." The ICG report charged that the motives for the hand-over from NATO to the EU "have less to do with the real security situation in that country than with EU eagerness to bolster its credibility as a security actor and US desire to declare at least one of its long-term military deployments successfully over."

Sudan: Democracy and Famine
US Secretary of State Colin Powell and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan are both visiting Sudan this week to observe the grim effects of ethnic cleansing in Darfur province. It is widely acknowledged that the Janjaweed militias that viciously attack the villages of African tribes in the region operate with the support and encouragement of the Sudanese government.

The recurrent crises in Sudan are often looked upon as humanitarian emergencies, and the role of government in promoting displacement and famine is dealt with ... diplomatically. But a peace agreement between the Government of Sudan and the southern Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement now it its final stages of negotiation offers the possibility that Sudan may soon be more open to freedom of expression and association, and that elections will take place that can effect the character of government. Proponents of "directed development" sometimes scoff that "you can't eat democracy." Sudan's experience is a demonstration of Nobel Prize winner Amartra Sen's thesis in The Journal of Democracy that "in the terrible history of famines in the world, no substantial famine has ever occurred in any independent and democratic country with a relatively free press."

Concern Shadows the Ukrainian Elections
Viktor Yushchenko, former Prime Minister and one-time head of Ukraine's central bank, announced on Monday that he will run as a reform candidate to replace President Leonid Kuchma in the national elections scheduled for October 31st. His announcement followed a decision last week by Ukraine's parliamentary majority to nominate incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich as its candidate.

Says Anders Aslund, the Swedish authority on the post-Soviet world, "Hardly anybody doubts that the presidential election on October 31 will take place and be a watershed in modern Ukrainian history."

The Kuchma government is accused by many of implication in the deaths and disappearances of important journalists and opposition figures, and of efforts to undermine the independent media. Ukraine has sent troops to Iraq, and in other ways cooperates with th US in the Mediterranean and the Middle East -- a relationship that some fear could tempt the US to go easy on the ruling group if complaints arise about election abuses. This could oblige Europeans to take a lead role in pressing for free and fair elections in Ukraine. On June 25 NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer pointedly called on the Ukrainian government to respect democratic values: "We all know what it means -- no persecution of the media, conducting free and fair elections, and the superiority of law and freedom of speech."

Engaging the Debate Within Islam
A recent study by Cheryl Bernard of the National Security Research Division of the RAND Corporation, a major U.S. think tank, argues that encouraging moderate and peaceful trends within the Islamic world will require "a finely grained understanding of the ongoing ideological struggle within Islam to identify appropriate partners and set realistic goals." Bernard sees four distinct currents in contemporary Islamic thought: fundamentalists, modernists, traditionalists and secularists.

"The modernists and secularists are closest to the West in terms of values and policies," she contends. "However, they are generally in a weaker position than the other groups, lacking powerful backing, financial resources, an effective infrastructure, and a public platform. The secularists, besides sometimes being unacceptable as allies on the basis of their broader ideological affiliation, also have trouble addressing the traditional sector of an Islamic audience. Traditional orthodox Islam contains democratic elements that can be used to counter the repressive, authoritarian Islam of the fundamentalists, but it is not suited to be the primary vehicle of democratic Islam. That role falls to the Islamic modernists, whose effectiveness, however, has been limited by a number of constraints ...." The 88-page paper elaborates this argument.

Egyptian Human Rights NGOs Study New Government Council
Some 170 participants gathered on June 26-27 to consider how non-governmental human rights organizations should relate to the National Council for Human Rights established by the Egyptian government under the leadership of former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Gali. Some Egyptian human rights activists have questioned whether this government-created group could be considered "an attempt to constrict civil society and human rights organizations" that operate independently of the government.

The June meeting was organized by the Arab Program for Human Rights Activists in Cairo. According to a June 28 press release, participants in this meeting agreed that:

• civil society society organizations should be freed from restrictions imposed by Association Law No. 84 of 2002;
• the official National Council should be reconstituted on a democratic basis so that all elements of society can participate;
• the National Council should be assured independence and required to operate with transparency.

The NGO group also agreed to continue its monitoring and dialogue regarding future operations of the National Council.

INFORMATION

Dutch Presidency of the European Union Website
The website of the Dutch Presidency of the European Union is now online. The website contains information about the Dutch Presidency, including its priorities, and a calendar of meetings and events and information on EU policy issues, member states and candidate countries. Policy documents relating to the various Council meetings and summits will also be published on the site, and updated daily.

VACANCIES

Foreign Policy Association Job Board
For an excellent and extensive listing of positions available in the international affairs field, see this site maintained by the Foreign Policy Association.

The Asia Foundation
Democracy and Civil Society: Taiwan
The Asia Foundation seeks a Senior Program Manager required to design and implement projects related to Taiwan's democratic consolidation and development of domestic civil society; produce periodic analyses of Taiwan's democratization and civil society development; prepares proposals and reports for these projects; and coordinate with civil society organizations in Taiwan. Contact: Sue Su - Phone: (886-2) 2506-1174 or mailto:suesu@afit.org.tw. Apply by: July 31, 2004

National Endowment for Democracy
Interns
The NED seeks interns for its International Forum for Democratic Studies, Reagan-Fascell Fellowship, and Journal of Democracy. For further details contact: Melissa Aten: Phone: 202-293-0300, extension 665 or matilto:melissa@ned.org. Apply by: July 15, 2004.

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

July, 4-6, The Hague, the Netherlands
"Enhancing the European profile in Democracy Assistance" Conference
Democracy AGENDA –- the Alliance for Generating a European Network for Democracy Assistance -– has confirmed several important speakers for their forthcoming conference,   "Enhancing the European profile in Democracy Assistance." Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende will join Madeleine Albright, former US Secretary of State and president of the National Democratic Institute, in addressing the conference in The Hague, Netherlands. Other speakers include Lord Dahrendorf of the British House of Lords, Adrian Severin, president of the OSCE and former minister of state in Romania), Mamphela Ramphele, Managing Director of the World Bank), Miguel Angel Rodriguez (former President of Costa Rica) and Agnes Van Ardenne, the Dutch Minister of International Cooperation.

The event is hosted by the Institute for Multiparty Democracy, parallel to the Dutch presidency of the European Union. The conference is prepared by a European wide steering committee, containing the German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the British Westminster Foundation for Democracy, the French Fondation Jean Jaures and the Swedish Centre Party International Department

Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy, IMD Office, Korte Vijverberg 2, NL-2513 AB The Hague, tel: +31 70 3115464, fax: +31 70 3115465, e-mail: info@nimd.org, web site: http://www.nimd.org/

July 7-10, Cascais, Portugal
Conference on Europe and the Trans-Atlantic Relationship
A conference wil be held at the Palácio dos Condes de Castro Guimarães in Cascais, Portugal, organized by the Institute for Political Studies of the Portuguese Catholic University in association with the Harvard Summer Program, the Boston College Summer Program and Wyzsza Szkola Biznesu-National-Louis University of Poland. Speakers include the German Marshall Fund's Craig Kennedy, Josef Joffe, Editor of Die Zeit, French Parliamentarian Pierre Lellouche, William Kristol of The Weekly Standard, Raymond Plant of King's College, Oxford, and Democracy Digest's Penn Kemble of Freedom House. The closing session will be addressed by José Manuel Durão Barroso, the Prime Minister of Portugal.

The conference is convened by João Carlos Espada, editor of Nova Cidadania and Director of the Catholic University's Political Studies Institute, Journal of Democracy editor Marc F. Plattner and Adam Wolfson, editor of the Washington-based Public Interest magazine. Further details and information about registration are available from: Instituto de Estudos Políticos da Universidade Católica Portuguesa Palma de Cima, 1649-023, Lisbon – Portugal Tel. (351) 21-721-4129  Fax (351) 21-727-1836 E-Mail: mailto:imoreira@iep.ucp.pt  

July 8, 2004, 8:00 am to 1:30 pm, Washington, DC, Hudson Institute & Formosa Foundation
"The Triangular Relationship: the U.S., Taiwan and China"
The speakers include: Rand Fishbein, Fishbein & Associates; John Tkacik, The Heritage Foundation; Bill Gertz, The Washington Times; Charles Horner, Hudson Institute; Ross Munro, Center for Security Studies; Derek Mitchell, CSIS; Jeffrey Bell, Capitol City Partners; Constantine Menges, Hudson Institute; and Li Pei Wu, Formosa Foundation. The conference will be held at the Hudson Institute, 1015 18th Street, NW, Suite 300 Washington, DC. Space is limited. Please RSVP by July 6. For more information, or to RSVP for this event, please contact Hudson Institute at 202-223-7770 or email RSVP@hudsondc.org.

July 13, 2004, 3:30-5:30 pm, Washington, DC, Woodrow Wilson Center
"A Billion Ballots for Democracy: Election Year in Indonesia."
The scheduled speakers at this event are Muhammad Qodari,: Director of Research Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), Indonesia; Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, Managing Editor, Jakarta Post; James Della-Giacoma, Senior Advisor, Citizen Participation, National Democratic Institute (NDI). The discussion will be held at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave, 6th Floor Auditorium. RSVP (acceptances only) by Friday, July 9, to: asia@wwic.si.edu, or call 202-691-4020.