ISSUES

FOCUS: DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Recent weeks have brought a flurry of proposals designed to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting democratization and reform across the Greater Middle East. We highlight some of the most significant initiatives and developments.

Foreign Policy Center: EU needs more energetic democratization strategy
The European Union should be tougher in promoting Middle East reform by withdrawing aid and trade privileges from regimes that abuse human rights and fail to democratize, says a report by the UK-based Foreign Policy Center (FPC). The report suggests EU member states would get more leverage in the region by allocating at least 10% of overall aid to political initiatives.

This report's analysis and conclusions overlap with a report for the Centre for European Research which argues that the EU should develop more effective and distinct policies of its own, or accept a junior role to the US.

These reports suggest that while the U.S. and Europe take different approaches, each has its own validity. But the EU's External Relations Chief, Chris Patten, contends that the US could learn from Europe's "long-term consensus-building approach . . . that respects differences of approach in different countries and regions."

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer argues that Europe's contribution should stress reforming the Arab world from the bottom up rather than from the top down. In an important speech at the Munich Security Conference in early February, Fischer stressed that Europe has developed expertise in building institutions, nourishing civil society, and broadening political participation in helping transformation in post-autocratic Spain, Portugal, Greece and the new Central European democracies.

Democratization demands transatlantic cooperation
A transatlantic group associated with the German Marshall Fund believes an effort to "strengthen indigenous political forces pushing for democratic change" in the Greater Middle East must be "administered at arm's length from government to ensure it is not constrained by diplomatic pressures." A new transatlantic Forum for Democracy Promotion should coordinate activities, while European and North American countries fund an independent Trust for Democracy in the Middle East. "As the debate over the Greater Middle East heats up," the GMF authors warn, "there is a danger that Europeans and Americans will pursue competing democratization strategies."

Similar concerns are echoed by Ivan Krastev, head of the Bulgarian Center for Liberal Strategies, who observes that anti-Americanism is leading many European governments and foundations "to distance themselves from American democracy-promotion efforts in environments where there is strong antipathy to the United States." He fears trans-Atlantic division over democracy promotion will "erode the very idea of internationally backed democratization efforts," and be manipulated by anti-democratic forces within Europe. "Many non-democratic, semi-democratic or even almost-democratic regimes are tempted to criminalize any internal pressure for democracy, labeling it 'American-sponsored destabilization,'" he warns.

Mideast reform requires "new form of social compact"
New forms of multilateral cooperation have been proposed by Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In a March 29 speech at Washington's Brookings Institution, Senator Lugar called for a Greater Middle East Twenty First Century Trust to promote security and stability. Lugar called his proposal "a new form of social compact between governments and donors that does not superimpose a plan from donors but, instead, works with the recipient countries to plan and set priorities." A report of Senator Lugar's speech is available on the Brookings website.

Mid-East initiative wrong-footed?
A new policy brief from Carnegie Endowment associates Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers examines the U.S. Greater Middle East Initiative, concluding that while the initial plan was flawed, potential for genuine reform remains if all sides collaborate in addressing regional problems that threaten Arab security.

Alexandria Declaration: an "Arab Magna Carta?"
As Europeans and North Americans discussed how to assist democracy in the Middle East, debate also bubbled up in the region itself. Some 200 Arab intellectuals, academics and politicians gathered on March 12-14 in Alexandria, Egypt, to discuss their own approaches to reform. Some observers saw this event as a public relations show managed by the Egyptian Government, because leading Egyptian dissidents such as Saad Eddin Ibrahim and Ali Salem were not invited. But, whatever may have been intended, the meeting produced a statement calling for sweeping political and economic reforms across the Arab world. Despite his exclusion, Saad Ibrahim described the Alexandria Declaration as "a sort of Arab Magna Carta."

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak returned from a visit to Europe to address the Alexandria conference in closed session. While in Europe Mubarak had assailed talk of a Greater Middle East Democracy Initiative as an attempt to impose reform from outside -- a theme echoed by many European critics. Saad Ibrahim and others responded that Mubarak has steadfastly refused even to meet with the coalition of Egyptian groups, the Committee for Defense of Democracy, that has drafted a moderate plan for constitutional and political reform.

Marshall Plan model for Middle East transformation
Francois Heisbourg, director of the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, is more emphatic about the central role that Europe should have in the Middle East. Sustainable change in the Greater Middle East demands: