An Initiative with Promise and Problems
Tamara Cofman Wittes, a scholar at Washington's Brookings Institution, comments that “by embedding its small-bore programs in a network of new institutions with their own funding and capacity”, the approach the US is proposing could “insulate the project of democracy promotion in the Middle East from the swings of political fortune that have often doomed similar efforts in the past.”

The “meager returns” on human rights and good-governance from the European Union's Barcelona Process may lead European governments to undertake greater cooperation in education, trade, poverty reduction and development which many consider a precondition of sustainable political reform. Such a “modernization approach” may be less likely to provoke Arab government resistance than objections made by outsiders to such practices as emergency decrees, arbitrary arrests, and press intimidation.

But Wittes notes that the new draft GMEI contains few incentives or sanctions to induce recalcitrant regimes to change. If the region's leaders continue to resist, the G-8 could face a painful choice: “ follow the path of least resistance with Arab governments, and thereby to break faith with Arab liberals and others pressing for freedom and democracy; or to embrace the reform vision articulated by Arab activists, and thereby enter an era of greater tension and confrontation with Arab regimes.”

Watching the Tunis Summit
The Arab League Summit re-scheduled for May 22-23 in Tunis will provide important indicators of the strategy the region's governments adopt. (This Summit was postponed due to internal differences over the response to pressures for reform.)

League secretary-general Amr Moussa spent the last week touring Arab states to discuss the future of the 55-year-old organization. The League denounced the concept of a “Greater Middle East' as a conspiracy to dilute the Arab world's identity and cohesion. Moussa told the Cairo-based Middle East News Agency there is a state of tension and anxiety within the region about four issues that will top the Summit agenda: Palestine, Iraq, reform (which he calls "self-reform”) and reforming the Arab League itself.

Moussa expects the Summit to agree on political reform that would involve commitment to democracy and transparency on the part of rulers, “assertions on women's rights”, respect for human rights and socio-economic reform. The summit will mobilize the Arab world “in the direction of genuine reform that is not dependent on foreign quarters, because there is no trust in whatever the others offer”

But certain members of the League have questioned its relevance and usefulness. "What we have now are 22 countries that have very little in common other than their language," one League source told the Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram "Take the concept of national security. Some Arab countries find the US military presence a threat to national security. Others believe that it is essential for their national security."

Observations: The Two Faces of the Middle East
 "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...we had everything before us, we had nothing before us...."  The familiar opening from Charles Dickens's A Tale of Two Cities, set in revolutionary France, could describe the strange duality found in reports and analyses of developments in the Middle East.  

Robin Wright, a seasoned reporter on the region at The Washington Post, unfurled her despair last week. "I am scared because the foundation for the region's democratic transformation has steadily eroded over the past year. Whether the U.S.-led occupation was wise or well-handled, the way it unfolded in Iraq has profoundly disappointed many Muslims both near and far from Iraq's borders. The accumulation of events threatens to undo rather than remake the region, in turn delaying or diverting the course of the Modern Era's final phase."  

Paradoxically, on the same day of Wright's despairing assessment the Council of Ministers in Kuwait took the historic step of approving legislation granting women the right to vote and stand for parliament.  Women's rights campaigners there expressed confidence that the legislation will pass in the legislature.  According to an analysis in Britain's Guardian, a journal not always charitable toward the US, "the Kuwaiti decision chimes with a US-led campaign to encourage the adoption of western-style democracy in the Middle East."

Wright's colleague at The Post, David Ignatius, reported from the World Economic Forum in Jordan that a reform spirit was much in evidence among Middle Eastern representatives in attendance. "The Arabs have decided it is their issue -- not America's,” Ignatius wrote. “A heavy-handed effort by the Bush administration two months ago to impose its own reform plan in something called the 'Greater Middle East Initiative' infuriated the Arabs. But rather than sitting around sulking, they have drafted their own reform agenda which they are scheduled to endorse at an Arab League summit in Tunis this weekend."

Accounts of the Forum in Jordan describe some lively exchanges. Rouzbeh Pirou of the London-based Mideast think tank Civility spoke out against those who attack pro-democracy, human rights and solidarity groups for "advancing Western interests under the cover of more noble aims." When the Arab League's Amr Moussa offered the 1300 participants his stock speech about outsiders who are trying to force reform “down my throat,” he was challenged by a female delegate who questioned whether the region's governments would ever reform themselves if there is a risk they might lose power. When French Middle East expert Gilles Kepel declared that political reform can only follow economic reform, an Indian delegate objected that his country demonstrates that democracy is possible even where there is abject poverty.

Tamara Cofman Wittes contends that such ferment arises because a combination of regional decline and greater western attention has now “emboldened the Arab world's fledgling liberal movement” and generated civil society demands for reform “unprecedented in their number, comprehensiveness, and explicit focus on democracy and freedom.”

Shafeeq Ghabra, President of the American University of Kuwait, writing in Al-Hayat this week, sees the Arab world in "a pre-democratic moment," and predicts that the transition to democracy, will be long, violent, and complex. Ghabra notes that Arabs have experimented with “most of modernity's political creeds,” as well as with “home-grown ideologies,” but that the “only ideology the region has not tried is liberal capitalist democracy.” He cites the civil society conference at the Alexandria National Library last March and the subsequent Alexandria Declaration as an instance of “palpable” optimism about reform and “a rare instance of self-criticism and reflection.” The status quo is now “being challenged to the extent that the old methods of traditional politics and governance in the region cannot be sustained.” But, he warns, while some states will manage to reform, others will simply disintegrate. "Outside assistance can sometimes be a welcome counterwieght to forces of internal resistance and inertia," he suggests.

News from Iraq, of course, now casts heavy shadows across the whole landscape of the Middle East. Many commentators in the U.S. and Europe have shifted toward deep pessimism. For example, Crispin Blunt, MP, chair of the Conservative Middle East Council in Britain's House of Commons, recently spoke out in opposition to the British stand in Iraq: "I voted for the intervention in Iraq....But the rights and wrongs of the intervention have been overtaken by the rights and wrongs of the occupation. The situation has changed. So must our policy....Pouring more troops into a failing situation is doomed."

But even with respect to Iraq others claim some positive developments. Iranian author and journalist Amir Taheri  offers these consoling observations:

“Had enough of bad news from Iraq? Here is some good news: The nationwide anti-American insurrection promised by media headlines just a week ago has not happened. Al Sadr has just proposed to dissolve his so-called Mehdi Army and says he is even ready to go into exile to prevent further bloodshed. All he is asking for is for the Shiite grand ayatollahs to intervene to get him off the hook of an arrest warrant on a charge of murder. The grand ayatollahs, however, insist that he should eat humble pie.”

Attacks on the newly-created Iraqi police force have dropped by 50 per cent in the past four weeks.” Tameri contends that despair has taken a deeper hold in Europe and the US than it has in Iraq.

It may be, of course, that both pictures of the Middle East are true at once: this is a time of extraordinary risks, yet also one of great possibilities. One thing seems clear: whatever stresses may be created for Europe and the US, they are far greater for the peoples of the region.

Syria Sanctions Prompt Debate on Reform Strategy
The US government's announcement of sanctions against Syria has provoked discussion on the measure's impact. The sanctions arise from the Syria Accountability Act.

France's left-leaning Le Monde suggests sanctions could prove counter-productive, leading Damascus to reduce the "certain degree of freedom of speech and criticism" it currently allows Yet Beirut's moderate Daily Star argues that the Ba'athist regime should "turn the tables" on Washington and "press ahead with a genuine reform program."

The sanctions would appear to conflict with EU policy which has sought to promote liberalization in Syria through "critical and constructive engagement." Yet EU foreign ministers recently stalled on an "association agreement" which would give special trade privileges to Damascus. The UK, Germany and the Netherlands insist the trade deal's language is too weak on weapons of mass destruction.

European Strategy Best For Confronting "Totalitarian" Jihadists
Middle East reform requires that the West pursue an approach to the Palestinian issue based on fairness and even-handedness, says a leading analyst, who also proposes an end to the "indulgence of corruption and repression [in the region] for the sake of short-term security of Western interests.”

In a paper for the EU-funded Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission, Cambridge University academic and independent consultant George Joffé recommends an approach that constructively engages with regional problems “in which the West is implicated”, although he concedes “Arab governments are at least as culpable as their Western counterparts” for the region's underdevelopment. This would help “create the climate in which popular attitudes … might no longer sympathize with the wider aims of the salafi-jihadi movement and decry the brutality of its more extreme adherents.”

“Europe has a blueprint for precisely such an agenda,” says Joffe, “if only it can overcome its reticence to act autonomously from the US, in the enhanced Euro-Mediterranean Partnership.“ Joffé acknowledges that the jihadist movement “fits squarely within the category of totalitarian systems as defined by Hannah Arendt –- charismatic leadership of a repressive regime based on a holistic ideology but operating with arbitrary power.”

Bahrain: Pro-Democracy Activists Detained
Bahrain should immediately release 20 individuals arrested for collecting signatures on a political petition, says Human Rights Watch. The group also demands authorities should end the criminal investigations against them.

Those arrested were petitioning for constitutional amendments to give greater authority to the kingdom's elected assembly. Many thousands have reportedly signed the petition to King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa. On April 30, 17 Bahrainis were arrested at several public signature-collection stands. They face charges of calling for change to the political system, provoking hatred and trying to destabilize public security.

On May 6, the independent Bahrain Center for Human Rights (BCHR) reports, security forces raided the homes of five other petition activists, confiscated computers and documents and took the five into custody. On May 16, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs threatened to withdraw the BCHR's license if it did not end unspecified “political activities.”

Bahrain does not permit political parties, but the government tolerates circumscribed political activities by independent “societies.” Four of these began the petition effort to modify the constitution. Under the constitution, limited legislative authority is shared by an elected national assembly and an appointed consultative council of 40 members each.

Political liberalization has not led to reform of numerous laws restricting basic political liberties. The government has previously threatened legal action against the offending societies and the Bahrain Center for Human Rights on the grounds that they violated the restrictive 1989 decree governing associations.

EU Criticizes Burmese Junta's Convention
The European Union expressed "deep disappointment" after Burma's military junta launched a constitutional convention without releasing democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest or allowing the National League for Democracy to reopen its offices.

The council of EU foreign ministers “regrets that this opportunity to begin a real process of national reconciliation and a peaceful transition to democracy has not been taken by the Burmese authorities," a statement said. The regime insists the talks effectively reconvene an earlier convention which began in 1993. It collapsed in 1996 when the NLD walked out. The junta says the convention is the first stage of a seven-point "roadmap to democracy" which will conclude with free elections.

Most observers say the convention has no credibility. Western diplomats boycotted the opening ceremony. The phone lines to the NLD's headquarters, only recently reopened after a year's closure, were cut as the convention began. "This is an indication that we are in for some hard times," NLD spokesman U Lwin told Agence France Presse.

Poor Democracies Rewarded With Millennium Challenge Aid
The US Government has deemed 16 developing countries eligible for enhanced U.S. foreign assistance under its Millennium Challenge Account. The countries' selection was partly based on human rights and democratic governance criteria, including a commitment to "ruling justly."

The move was welcomed by pro-democracy and human rights groups. "The use of strict criteria in the allocation of new development aid will mainly reward poor countries that adhere to basic human rights and democratic practices." said Freedom House Executive Director Jennifer Windsor. "It will also avoid bolstering despotic regimes in developing states with long records of human rights violations."

The selected countries (and their Freedom House ratings) are Armenia (4,4 Partly Free), Benin (2,2 Free), Bolivia (3,3 Partly Free), Cape Verde (1,1, Free), Georgia (4,4 Partly Free), Ghana (2,2 Free), Honduras (3,3 Partly Free), Lesotho (2,3 Free), Madagascar (3,3 Partly Free), Mali (2,2 Free), Mongolia (2,2 Free), Mozambique (3,4 Partly Free), Nicaragua (3,3 Partly Free), Senegal (2,3 Free), Sri Lanka (3,3 Partly Free), and Vanuatu (2,2 Free).

Millennium Challenge Account aims to create incentives for improved governance and democratic practices in developing countries. The initial list of eligible countries included such human rights violators as Vietnam and Mauritania, but the most democratically dubious candidates failed to make the second list.

INFORMATION

Transatlantic Trends
"Ideas of Europe and the Trans-Atlantic Relationship" is the theme of the XII International Annual Meeting in Political Studies to be held July, 7-10, 2004 at the Palácio dos Condes de Castro Guimarães, Cascais, Portugal.

The meeting has been convened by João Carlos Espada, editor of Nova Cidadania, Marc F. Plattner, editor of the Journal of Democracy and Adam Wolfson, editor of The Public Interest. Such issues as the trans-Atlantic relationship, international legitimacy, internationalism and democracy, and anti-Americanism will be addressed by a politically diverse range of experts, including leading parliamentarians, journalists and academics from both sides of the Atlantic. (Further details available from: http://www.ucp.pt/iep/eep_prog_2004.html

Can Democracy be Exported?: Webb Essay Prize 2004
The Foreign Policy Centre has joined with the Webb Memorial Trust and the New Statesman for the 5th Webb Essay Prize. The prize winning essay on the theme 'Can democracy be exported?' will receive £1,000, and appear in the British political weekly, the New Statesman. Essays should be no more than 2000 words and entrants must be 26 or under on the closing date of 1st October 2004.

China Sentences US-based Dissident to 5 Years
China's Beijing No.2 Intermediate People's Court sentenced Yang Jianli to five years in prison On May 13, 2004. Yang, who had been imprisoned for over two years with verdicts pending, was found guilty of espionage and illegal border crossing. (For background information, go to: www.wmd.org/alert/june2602.html

Cuba sentences 3 dissidents in third trial in a month
Three Cuban dissidents -- Orlando Zapata Tamayo, Raul Arencibia Fajardo and Virgilio Marante Guelmes -- who met to discuss the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in a private home were sentenced on May 18 to three years each in prison. The convictions are the third set of sentences for dissidents in less than a month. The European Union recently condemned the ''disproportionate severity'' of sentences given to Cuba's dissidents

Freedom House Vacancies
Freedom House is seeking to appoint Senior Program Officers in its Washington, D.C. offices. Appropriate candidates should have at least 3 to 5 years experience in project management in the areas of democracy promotion and/or international human rights. The nonprofit, nonpartisan group that promotes liberty and democracy worldwide, is also advertising for a program officer for its Cuban Democracy Project, also based in Washington, D.C. (For further details go to: http://www.freedomhouse.org/aboutfh/empopp.htm#SPO.)

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

June 14-21, Salzburg, Austria
'Reinventing the West: Redefining the Transatlantic relationship' Salzburg Seminar, Leopoldskron Strasse 56-58, Box 129, A-5010 Salzburg, tel: +43 662 83 98 30, fax: +43 662 83 98 37, e-mail:info@salzburgseminar.org, web site: http://www.salzburgseminar.org/.

June 16-21, Halki, Greece
15th Halki International Seminars: 'Transatlantic cooperation in the greater Middle East and South-eastern Europe', ELIAMEP, 4 Xenophontos Street, GR-105 57 Athens, tel: +30 210 331 50 22, fax: +30 210 364 21 39, e-mail: halki@eliamep.gr, web site: http://www.eliamep.gr/.

July, 4-6, The Hague, the Netherlands
Working conference on 'European profile in democracy support' Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy, IMD Office, Korte Vijverberg 2, NL-2513 AB The Hague, tel: +31 70 3115464, fax: +31 70 3115465, e-mail: info@nimd.org, web site: http://www.nimd.org/

Correction: Our last issue mis-identified a former Coalition Provisional Authority officer in Iraq now commenting on Iraq issues here as James Rubin. His first name is actually Michael.