Alexandria Declaration Anniversary Signals Reformers' Frustration
One year after the celebrated Alexandria Declaration and an Arab League commitment to promote reform and modernization across the region, there is demonstrable disappointment with the lack of progress as almost all of the same old autocrats as last year remain in power. “Arab rulers, many of them in power for decades, have little to show for the promise of political reform which they made at their summit in Tunis last year, partly in response to pressure from Washington,” notes one observer.

An anniversary meeting of the Alexandria forum disappointed many participants and observers. Discussions on political reform, the “culture of peace,“ human rights and women's empowerment were largely abstract and inconclusive. A progress report on the implementation of the Alexandria Document confirmed a “lack of commitment to speeding up reform” and the conference offered “little in the way of realisable plans.” The only concrete proposal to emerge was for a web-based forum or "info mall" to assist communication between Arab civil society groups.

Other protagonists suggest the half-empty cup is also half-full. “The reform that is happening across the region is much more than superficial,“ said Elizabeth L. Cheney, principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Near Eastern Affairs Bureau and recently appointed coordinator for broader Middle East and North Africa initiatives. “In countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, they recognize that they have to change.'' The US administration is seeking to enlist Group of Eight (G-8) nations like Japan to promote democracy in the Middle East by training election monitors.

The glacial pace of reform suggests that there is indeed a role for external forces to prompt, facilitate or support local democratic initiatives although the influence of and interventions by foreign agencies can breed resentment. "This notion of exporting and spreading democracy insults democratic forces in the region," argues Abdul-Hadi Al-Khawaga, a Bahraini human rights activist. But many others recognize that pressure from foreign powers and solidarity from fellow democrats can help create valuable political space otherwise denied to local activists.\

It is “undeniable that some, if not all, of the impetus given to this sector of civil society in recent years was the result of outside pressure from the US or Europe,” says Gamil Matar, Director of the Arab Centre for Development and Futuristic Research. “Nor can we refute that in some Arab countries NGOs and other grassroots organizations not only began to proliferate but also enjoyed a margin of freedom greater than that permitted to political parties or professional syndicates. “ But Matar notes that Arab regimes have been able to limit the autonomy or otherwise control civil society groups, with one familiar measure being “to create semi-official 'mother NGOs' to 'coordinate' the activities of the NGOs orbiting in their constellation.”

"Dose of Democracy" Will Undercut Radicalism
A survey of the Middle East “reveals not only that Islamist movements are beginning to moderate their views,” notes Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow in Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, but that “the radical remnants increasingly have a limited standing in the region.” Such trends suggest that “the best way to extinguish ideological radicalism is with a persistent dose of democracy.“

Some observers have cautioned that Arab democratization could strengthen radical anti-democratic forces, raising the specter of a brief “one person-one vote-one time” electoral interlude. “Having Hamas, Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood and similar groups participate in electoral politics is infinitely preferable to allowing them to serve as a mythic symbol of popular frustration, unburdened by any accountability for good governance,” notes one commentator. “But whether the Bush administration is pursuing democratization fully cognizant of the consequences of success -- oblivion for many of its traditional allies, and the empowering of long-time nemeses -- is an open question.”

“While the intellectual advocates of democracy are individual liberals, the fruits are likely to be reaped by large communal-based parties and Islamist movements, which have a much easier time organizing large groups of people,” cautions regional expert Barry Rubin. Nevertheless, he suggests that even cosmetic reforms may act as a catalyst for democratization since “by allowing even minimal change dictators may be making fatal miscalculations, lifting the lid enough to let out a liberal genie who will sweep them away.”

Others note the risks but suggest the creation of political space and the imperatives of representative politics will constrain and ultimately undermine anti-democratic elements. “Radical Islamism has succeeded only because it has managed to survive in an authoritarian landscape and thus assumes the mantle of opposition,” the CFR's Takeyh notes. By contrast, where democratic politics is an option, the imperatives of getting re-elected leads many radicals to “abandon their disruptive and costly utopian schemes in search of more-practical solutions.”

The US administration should supplement its democracy promotion strategy through a new “regional compact” under which groups which renounce violence and commit to unequivocally accepting elections as the basis of legitimate authority should be allowed to participate in elections. He advocates engagement with Islamist groups, stressing that the only way to undermine terrorists groups like Hamas and Hizbollah is to “continuously expand the marketplace of ideas and enhance competitive politics.”

Mubarak Concession Suggests Tunisian Model, Not Genuine Reform
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's amendment to Article 76 of the Constitution, permitting a direct and competitive vote in the September presidential election, has been widely welcomed and even cited as further evidence of a thaw in the region's politics. But the move, which followed US pressure and popular mobilization, still presents would-be opponents with huge obstacles. It also does little to address burgeoning discontent with the regime. Tarek Heggy, a leading liberal intellectual, has drawn attention to the "dangerous polarization that has come to characterize the cultural climate in Egypt today" as the regime reacts to growing demands for liberalization and reform by resorting to familiar authoritarian measures.

The fragmented opposition will not have time to develop a coherent challenge in the presidential election, leading democracy campaigner Saad Eddin Ibrahim said in a recent US TV interview, with the election “coming too soon after opening up the process.” The amendment was drawn up “in such a way as to exclude me from running,” he complains, since it requires candidates to be representatives of or affiliated with a political party.

Earlier contested elections for the parliament were “plagued by voter intimidation, fraud and other dirty tricks intended to pad the ruling National Democratic Party's majority.” The obstacles to forming a political party were outlined by al-Ghad leader Ayman Nour from his prison cell. It took three years of government obstruction and four legal battles in court to secure the “momentous achievement” of being the first liberal party to be licensed in Egypt since the military coup of 1952.” Nour is considered particularly threatening by the regime because he has been close to the ruling party and his politics of moderate democratization and modernization appeal to the same social base that Mubarak's younger son, Gamal, seeks to cultivate. "He became a danger when he worked in the same ways as the reform trend within the ruling party" and began threatening their seats in the parliamentary election later this year, according to one commentator.

Mubarak's announcement came in response to a groundswell of popular unrest and opposition to his regime. Demonstrations by the Kifaya (Enough) movement have demanded that Mubarak resign and not pass on the presidency to his son. With the “Kifaya factor” catching on in Beirut and beyond, the movement's activists collected over 1,000 signatures of public figures on a petition calling for a direct and contested presidential election. The liberal democratic Ghad (Tomorrow) Party has mobilized in opposition to the arrest of their leader Ayman Nour shortly after he announced his candidacy for the presidential election. Human rights activists have joined with Islamists to protest the arbitrary arrests and reports of torture after the October 7, 2004 terrorist bombings in Taba.

Observers and opposition figures fear Egypt could follow the Tunisian precedent, which recently introduced multi-candidate elections. In previous presidential referenda, President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who has ruled since 1987, routinely received 99 percent of the vote. He now gets 96 percent. The constitutional amendment is unlikely to serve as a catalyst for change as long as the government retains emergency laws in place since 1981, fails to limit presidential powers or dismantle the Political Parties Committee that limits freedom of association. The European Union has complained that despite Egypt's commitment under the Barcelona Process to uphold basic human rights and political liberties, they remain severely curtailed by the provisions of the State of Emergency.

The importance of the amendment “lies in the platform it provides for dissenting voices in the first contested presidential ballot and in the role it may play as a beachhead for further reform struggles,” suggests one commentator. But, says Brookings' Tamara Wittes, in the absence of genuine liberalization “Egyptians will miss their chance for gradual transformation—and start thinking, along with other Arabs, about hitting the streets.”

"Infidel" Aid OK for Regime, Not for Democracy NGOs
The Egyptian government has prompted imams to incite attacks against leading democrats and human rights activists, reports suggest, amid charges of foreign interference in domestic politics. Allegations of alien interference in Egyptian politics emerged after outgoing US ambassador David Welch announced $1 million worth of grants to pro-democracy non-governmental organizations. Dismissing accusations of meddling in domestic affairs, Welch stressed that the grants, made through the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), “are in response to Egyptian ideas for democracy activities, presented to us by Egyptian groups.”

Grant recipients included the Ibn Khaldoun Center for Development Studies, headed by Saad Eddin Ibrahim, for a project on political and electoral rights; the United Group, headed by human rights activist Negad al Borai, for a project to promote transparent elections in 2005; the Egyptian Association for Developing and Disseminating Legal Awareness, founded for a project promoting democracy among political parties; and the Egyptian Association for Supporting Democracy which aims to raise awareness about democracy in young people.

The United Group's al Borai rejected criticism of US funding. “We will deal with anyone who supports our interests,” he said. “It is normal that funding orientation for Egypt becomes inclined towards democratization when the country is facing parliamentary elections soon.”

So it is no coincidence that Ibrahim and al Borai have become the targets of orchestrated attacks by imams at some of Cairo's leading mosques. Imams at the el Fath and el Nour mosques amongst others explicitly named Ibrahim and al Borai as “traitors” and their calls for the Egyptian constitution to be amended to require term limits and constrain presidential powers attacked as American “infidel” ideas. Secularist writer Farag Fawda was killed in June 1992 after a similar campaign accused him of apostasy and treason.

Ibrahim attracted international attention five years ago when he was arrested, detained and convicted of treason and defamation of Egypt's image. He was eventually acquitted after an 18-month legal battle. El Borai, a leading human rights lawyer and chairman of the Group for Democratic Development (GDD), is currently defending the MP Ayman Nour, an independent challenger for the presidency who has been arrested on forgery charges widely regarded as politically motivated.

The Ministry of Islamic Endowments, a government body that supervises mosques, appoints imams and approves the sermons, controls all mosques. The GDD's el Borai called on the attorney general to investigate the attacks and demanded the resignation of Mahmoud Hamdi Zaqzouq, the head of the Ministry of Islamic Endowments, a European-trained philosopher previously regarded as a moderate.

The imams' attacks are a sign of a more aggressive approach on the part of the Mubarak regime. Opposition leader Ayman Nour has been the implicit target of an aggressive poster campaign, criticizing Mubarak's opponents and telling them to leave the country. ``Yes Yes to Mubarak the leader. No to every coward Egyptian, working as an agent for the Americans,'' say posters, plastered around the headquarters of Nour's Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party. ``Go away, you agent of the Americans,'' says another. Egypt received $1.9 billion in financial aid during fiscal 2004.

The ruling National Democratic Party is notoriously divided, some might suggest hypocritical, over the US. “The US that the NDP mobilised the opposition against [at a recent “national dialogue”], is the same US that gives NDP governments almost $2 billion in economic and military assistance every year," says Mohamed El-Sayed Said of Al-Ahram's Political and Strategic Studies Centre. According to Said, "When the US is a source of help, it's in the NDP's good books, but when it comes to reform, change and democratization, it becomes a source of evil that all forces must be mobilised against," says Mohamed El-Sayed Said of Al- Ahram's Political and Strategic Studies Centre. The NDP has used a recent “national dialogue” with relatively tame opposition groups, to deflect demands for change and mobilize would-be critics against external pressure for reform. Earlier dialogues in 1982, 1986, 1988, and 1993 generated precious little political reform.

Pro-regime analysts accuse the US of reverting to “cold war tactics.” “Radio stations are beaming American propaganda across the Middle East, as it used to do across Eastern Europe, while Washington simultaneously pressures Arab governments to alter their religious education curricula and infiltrates Arab NGOs and political parties,” one commentator complains. “Ukraine, it seems, has emerged as the model by which the US plans to spread liberty and democracy in the Arab world.”

NEWS IN BRIEF

West Shares Blame for Maskhadov Death and Likely Consequences
The West's leaders share complicity in the assassination of Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov, argues French philosopher Andre Glucksmann. “Chechnya has lost its de Gaulle,” the French philosopher laments, noting that his assassination clears the way for radical Islamist Shamil Basayev, the architect of the Beslan school massacre and other atrocities, who the Russians “themselves trained and often spared.”

It was precisely because Maskhadov had declared a unilateral ceasefire, called for a negotiated solution to the Chechnya crisis and distanced himself from the Islamists by declaring that he represented Western values that the Russians had to kill him, Glucksmann argues. Yet not a single Western leader echoed Maskhadov's call for negotiations, he notes, drawing parallels with the case of Afghanistan's Ahmed Shah Massoud." In a free Chechnya, no Chechen woman would ever be forced to cover her face," Maskhadov had declared. He unconditionally condemned the Moscow theatre hostage drama and the Beslan siege, offering to intervene personally.

“The dying Yassir Arafat was granted full honours in France and Europe,” notes Glucksmann. “And yet the Chechen president who never called for the murder of civilians died alone, just as he had fought. Abandoned by the world, isolated in his rebel mountains, seeing his people massacred amid general indifference.”

Growing Pressure to Keep EU Arms Embargo on China
In an open letter to the European Union, more than 500 Chinese human rights activists urged the retention of the embargo on arms sales to Beijing, asserting that the human rights situation has not fundamentally changed since 1989. Signatories included "former leaders in the 1989 pro-democracy movement and families of victims of the Tiananmen massacre."

"The regime's position -- that peaceful demonstration to demand democracy and freedom was 'counterrevolutionary,' hence justifying brutal suppression and even use of deadly force -- remains unchanged," it said. "Public commemoration and demands for re-evaluating this official verdict remain punishable offences."

The campaigners demanded that discussion on lifting the ban should depend on specific improvements, including the release of prisoners of conscience, and an independent commission to investigate the events of 1989.

"Doing away this sanction without corresponding improvements in human rights would send the wrong signal to the Chinese people, including especially those of us who lost loved ones, who are persecuted, and for all Chinese who continue to struggle for the ideal that inspired the 1989 movement," the letter stated.

Lifting the embargo would “flout all the values the EU stands for while also striking a blow against those working for more democratic change in China,” argues Erika. Mann, a German Social Democrat member of the European Parliament. But, speaking after the EU's traditional Spring Summit, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder insisted, "nothing has changed and nothing has changed in my stance."

Meanwhile, British parliamentarians last week cautioned Prime Minister Tony Blair's government that lifting the European Union embargo on arms sales to China would send wrong signals about human rights abuses and could adversely affect fragile transatlantic relations."We recommend that the government should oppose the lifting of the arms embargo on China unless all EU member states give an absolute assurance that it will not lead to a qualitative or quantitative increase in their exports," said a joint report from the influential defense, foreign affairs, international development, and trade and industry committees of the House of Commons.

”Robert Kagan interpreted the contrast between US and European approaches to international relations as Hobbes versus Kant, but where trade is concerned, it's Humbug versus Cant,” says Timothy Garton Ash. He notes that 6.7 percent of Chinese arms imports currently come from the US, compared to just 2.7 percent from Europe but nevertheless believes the embargo should stay.

• A leading Chinese academic has been sacked after criticizing control of the country's media by the Communist Party's propaganda apparatus. "I haven't seen the official letter yet, but it has already been delivered to our house," Jiao Guobiao, a journalism professor at Beijing University, told Radio Free Asia's Mandarin service. Jiao recently entered the United States as a visiting scholar at the National Endowment for Democracy.

Czech Activists Protest Cuban Dissidents' Imprisonment
Human rights activists wearing striped prison uniforms entered a symbolic prison cell in Prague's Wenceslas Square last week to mark the anniversary of a 2003 crackdown on 75 Cuban opposition activists, who were sentenced to prison terms averaging 20 years each for treason.

Over 50 demonstrators spent up to an hour each in a caged cell. They included Senator Jaromir Stetina, former head coach of the Czech national ice hockey team. The event was organized by the Czech human rights group People In Need to demand the prisoners be released.

"(Cuba) is the country ruled by fear, where political prisoners are imprisoned for years only because they expressed their views," said former Czech President Vaclav Havel in a video address to the demonstration.

OPPORTUNITIES

Vital Voices Global Partnership
Program Director, Middle East and Afghanistan
The Program Director works with the Managing Director of Program and Strategy to develop, fund and coordinate Vital Voices programs and projects in the Middle East and Afghanistan. To apply, send cover letter, resumé, and three references to jobs@vitalvoices.org. Full details here.

International Foundation for Election Systems
Program Assistant, Washington D.C.
Requirements: B.S./B.A. with one year of experience in international development or related field; foreign language skills and experience with the Asia region preferred; introductory program experience preferred; experienced with Microsoft Excel and Word; familiarity with USAID regulations preferred; detail oriented; excellent organizational skills; ability to prioritize, take direction, and meet deadlines; strong oral and written communicator; good problem-solving skills; team oriented. Send résumé and cover letter, referencing #20-05 PA-Asia in the subject line, to e-mail: jobs@ifes.org. Apply by: May 4, 2005

Universities of Sarajevo and Bologna
European Master's Degree in Democracy and Human Rights in SE Europe: Sarajevo/Bologna
The European Regional Master's Degree in Human Rights and Democracy in South East Europe is an intensive one-year course coordinated by the Universities of Sarajevo and Bologna. The programme, co-founded by the European Commission and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, involves renowned Faculty from more than 25 countries. Internships take place at various regional NGOs, IGOs, think-tanks and research institutes dealing with issues of human rights and democracy in South East Europe. The third term is hosted by the University of Bologna Residential Centre in Bertinoro, Italy. The programme is able to offer study grants based on the merit of each candidacy. The application form and additional information are available here. The deadline for submitting the full application package is June 1, 2005. For further information contact: Center for Interdisciplinary Postgraduate Studies, University of Sarajevo, Zmaja od Bosne 8, Student Campus, 71 000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Tel: + 387 33 668 685 ¨Fax: + 387 33 668 683 e-mail: coordination@cps.edu.ba.

EVENTS

Friday, April 8, 12-2:00 PM, National Endowment for Democracy, 1101 15th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005
Rebiya Kadeer on “The Struggle of the Uyghur People for Human Rights”
Rebiya Kadeer, recently released from prison in China, will discuss the Thousand Mothers Movement she founded, which provided training and mentoring for women's business ventures and helped channel donations to orphans, underprivileged children and needy students. She will also discuss her efforts to raise the human rights concerns of Uyghurs with the authorities in China, including unequal education opportunities, discrimination in employment and entrepreneurial opportunities, denial of religious freedom, harsh population control measures, and repression of cultural traditions.  RSVP with name and affiliation by Wednesday, April 6 to Melissa Birchard at melissa@ned.org or by phone at 202-293-9072.

April 22-23, Marriott Wardman, 2660 Woodley Road, NW, Washington, DC
CSID Sixth Annual Conference; Democracy and Development: Challenges for the Islamic World.
Further details and registration here.

April 25-28, Wilton Park, Sussex, UK
Arab-West Policy Dialogue on Common Security and Confidence Building
How can dialogue between the Arab region and the West on security needs be strengthened? Can the EuroMed dialogue improve relations between the Arab world and the West on the lines of the earlier East-West CSCE/OSCE process? How can issues such as democratic values and transformation best be addressed? For further information, please go here.

April 29-30 2005, Rabat, Morocco
EuroMeSCo Annual Conference: Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Priorities Towards 2010
The EuroMeSCo Annual Conference will discuss EMP Priorities Towards 2010. EuroMeSCo members and others involved in partnership activities will be invited to discuss the Barcelona Principles and Participation of Political Actors and Civil Society in the EMP. Working group sessions will focus specifically on the following themes: Euro-Mediterranean Co-operation in Multilateral Fora; Civil Society, and Migration; and Identifying Specific Areas for Security Co-operation.

May 11, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
The Center on the United States and Europe Annual Conference: "Europe's Global Role"
Agenda includes sessions on "Britain Between America and the European Union," featuring Philip Gordon, The Brookings Institution, Anatol Lieven, Carnegie Endowment, Gerard Baker, The London Times, Charles Grant, Centre for European Reform; "Where Does Europe End?,” featuring John Bruton, EU Ambassador to the United States, Sylvie Goulard, Institut d'Etudes Politiques, Paris, Andrew Moravcsik, Princeton University and Brookings Institution, Vladimir Ryzhkov, Russian Duma; and China, America, and Europe,” with Joseph Biden, United States Senator (invited) and Jean-David Levitte, French Ambassador to the United States. Further details here.

May 13, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity
Wave of Resistance” Conference to Assess Democratic Revolutions
Experts will examine the democratic revolutions in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine, and assess the role of civic movements and international actors at a major conference on 13 May sponsored by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity. The conference aims to understand the functioning of coalitions of civic and political actors involved in regime change, and to assess prospects for democratic transformation in other countries, including Belarus, Azerbaijan and Russia. The European Forum has invited members of civic movements, including Otpor, Kmara, Pora, Zubr, Marching without Putin and YOX; members of political parties; representatives of varying NGO's and experts on democratization. Further details available here.