Transatlantic Solidarity the Key to Resolving Ukraine Crisis
Ukraine's Supreme Court today rejected the results of the presidential runoff vote, ordering a new election to be held on or by December 26. The court's verdict came in response to an appeal by opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko to cancel the results of the November 21 runoff, which are widely acknowledged to have been rigged in favor of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. Tens of thousands of Yuschenko supporters in Kiev's main square cheered the Supreme Court decision.

European leaders worked closely with the US Administration to resolve the standoff in Ukraine. The remarkably similar stances taken on both sides of the Atlantic have been a source of frustration to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had been confident of levering pro-Moscow candidate Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych into office.

The European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski were in Kiev to try to mediate in the crisis, and President George W. Bush conspicuously supported their efforts. UPI reports that this coordinated transatlantic approach was planned in advance between Washington, Brussels, Berlin and other European capitals.

The day after Ukraine's parliament voted to dismiss the Yanukovych government, the European Parliament called for a rerun of the Ukrainian presidential election in a strongly worded resolution on Thursday which threatened sanctions if the government suppressed peaceful protest. It also directly rejected charges by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the EU was responsible for inciting violence by supporting allegations of electoral fraud. The resolution stressed that “Russia carries a great responsibility for the situation in Ukraine."

European politicians have been quick to reject Russian complaints of American interference. "The situation that came out after the elections should not be characterized as a West versus East rivalry, but an issue of democracy and respect for people's will," NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said in Rome this week.

Suggestions of a Cold War re-run may be overblown but the aftermath of the Ukraine election does represent “a contest between two visions for the world,” says Michael Gove of the London Times. Vladimir Putin's intention has been "decisively anti-democratic” and “his authoritarian populism is intended to be an alternative to democracy, as it is in a different way in China, not a path to democracy, as it was in, say, Chile.” Gove cautions that while it is fashionable in Europe to talk of post-modern, collaborative international relations that supersede power politics, the reality is that security cannot be defended by international law and conventions alone. “For Moscow, and for that matter Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran, Western liberalism is certainly a threat to their systems, if it ever takes root in their soil — but it is also a weakness to be exploited. While we place our faith in treaties, they regard them as evidence of our unwillingness to risk confrontation, and therefore as a licence to cheat, subvert and undermine.”

The “Orange Revolution”: US-Engineered Coup or European Model of Peaceful Revolution?
Yet the election has revealed a disturbing ambivalence towards democratization on the part of some commentators, particularly in western Europe, as reflected in allegations that democratizing efforts in Serbia, Georgia and now Ukraine have been “funded and organised by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organizations.” “For too long now we have gone along with the idea that spreading democracy on our terms is all good,” a former British diplomat complains in The Independent newspaper, decrying European complicity in democracy promotion.

In one of the more distasteful contributions to the debate, Jonathan Steele, chief foreign correspondent of the London-based Guardian, suggests that Ukraine's orange revolution is nothing more than a "postmodern coup d'etat." Through tenuous and contentious associations, Steele hints that the pro-Yuschenko forces share nationalistic, secessionist and anti-semitic sentiments.

As Timothy Garton Ash notes, observing events through a prism of anti-Americanism distorts one's perspective. “This is a version of our European model of peaceful revolution, with the aim of rejoining Europe, not America,” he argues, berating those who complain of US and EU support for Ukraine's democrats.

These conspiracy theories--by no means unique to Europe--reveal a mechanistic approach to politics, suggesting that popular movements can be artificially manufactured and that resources determine success. As the Washington Post's Anne Applebaum notes, they not only overrate the influence of US money and organizations, as the example of Belarus attests, but also neglect the countervailing forces of authoritarianism. Unlike any western politicians, Russia's President visited Ukraine twice to campaign for "his" candidate and deployed considerable resources of his own to counteract democratic forces.

Interventions by Western or any other agencies will only be effective in mobilizing popular support for democratic change where and when they reflect or feed into otherwise latent demands for change. "People have been suppressed, manipulated, downtrodden for so long, that this is resulting in an explosion of their best instincts," said Nadia Diuk, director for Europe and Eurasia at the National Endowment for Democracy. "People are saying, 'We're not going to take the manipulation of the media, and its control of the citizens, anymore.'" Even the previously quiescent media have grown more assertive. The Ukrainian TV channel 1 + 1 had been "very much in support of the government and the government's candidates," Diuk said. "But last week, news readers and news anchors decided they were not going to read the news just as it was handed down to them."

Civil Society Delivers Blow to Russia's Traveling "Political Technologists"
Jonathan Steele's animus against the pro-Yuschenko democrats may be due as much to the partiality of his sources as to his questionable democratic commitment. After all, the veteran journalist was recently the beneficiary of an all expenses paid trip to the region funded by Gleb Pavlovsky's Russian Press Club in Kyiv. Posing as a nongovernmental forum, the Club served as a conduit for Russian interference in the election. Sergei Markov, who ran the Club's analytical division, is another of the Russian “political technologists” who have swung elections Moscow's way in other polls within the former Soviet bloc. “[L]ook at what the US is doing here--supporting foundations, analytical centers, round tables. It's how contemporary foreign policy is pursued. And it's exactly what we're doing,” Markov concedes.

While the club's true role appears to have eluded the investigative skills of some journalists, Pavlovsky is unrepentantly blatant. "From the beginning of the year [Yanukovych's] support quadrupled," he is quoted as saying. "After [what we did for] Putin, this is a phenomenon. I can't see any failure from our side."

Pavlovsky, worked closely with Viktor Medvedchuk, head of Ukraine's presidential administration. This week he described Western policy toward Ukraine as a "political invasion." Through his Foundation for Effective Policy, Pavlovsky serves as a consultant to Putin and been closely associated with electoral malpractice and violations in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.

In stark contrast to the failures of the Kremlin's paid consultants, the democratic opposition succeeded in part by mobilizing large numbers of committed volunteers. The Committee on Voters of Ukraine (CVU) and others were able to deploy over 10,000 non-partisan domestic civic monitors, and the European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations, comprising 18 monitoring organizations from 16 countries, deployed 1000 election observers in more than 5000 polling places and 200 territorial election commissions. Such an effort, says Freedom House Executive Director Jennifer Windsor, by the largest ever international civic observer corps, shows the benefit of cross border learning. 

Threats of secession by Yanukovych-supporting south-eastern oblasts appear to have receded. In any case, Ukrainian writer Oksana Zabuzhko experienced the protests as an unprecedented upsurge of national solidarity. Stephen Sestanovich, a former US ambassador at large for the former Soviet Union, notes that Ukrainians came first in their support for fair elections, a fair judiciary, freedom of the press and free speech when pollsters canvassed citizens of Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria and Russia for their views of democratic norms. “Democracy can be the product of conflict as much as of consensus,” he suggests, “a practical tool that even poor and divided countries can use to solve their problems.

The mobilizations in Kiev and in other Ukrainian cities confirm the vibrancy and resilience of civil society just a few short years after some commentators lamented the fact that civil society was so frail that Ukrainians rarely defended their own interests. The protests have also earned the country an upgrade in its Freedom House ranking for demonstrating that Ukraine enjoys "freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion" and "freedom of political or quasi-political organization." Improvements in these categories raised Ukraine's overall civil liberties score to 3 which, Freedom House Research Director Arch Puddington notes, contrasts favorably with the "generally poor performance of neighboring Russia."

"I think the 'orange revolution' will win this time,” said Adrian Karatnycky, a senior scholar at Freedom House who recently returned from Ukraine. “I can't conceive of a set of circumstances under which Yushchenko won't be president of the country," he said. Nevertheless, Matthew Spence of the Truman National Security Project cautions that we should avoid conceiving of it as a “series of Kodak moments” and recognize “the reality that democracy promotion is about slow and steady progress, with inevitable setbacks and struggles along the way.”

Euro-Med Ministers Chart More Principled Partnership
A commitment to review and strengthen the European Union's engagement with its Mediterranean partners emerged from the Euro-Mediterranean ministers meeting in The Hague on 29-30 November. Foreign affairs ministers from the 25 EU Member States met with their counterparts from 10 Mediterranean Partners -- Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey.

Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Bot, whose country currently holds the EU's rotating presidency, urged the Arab world to accelerate modernization and collaborate with Europe in confronting the challenges of economic development, trade, migration, terrorism and cross-border crime. "We fully recognize that reform should come from the region itself. Nevertheless, Europe cannot stay at the sidelines of this debate. The common challenges are simply too important," Bot declared.

The partnership is one of the few forums in which Israel and its Arab neighbours can engage. Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom insisted that the EU must take a more "balanced approach" in dealing with Middle East issues. But he took advantage of the occasion to meet his Palestinian counterpart Nabil Shaath on Monday, and to affirm Israeli support for Palestinian elections. "Israel and Europe have agreed that a leader who has been elected through democratic channels is crucial in the prospective peace process," said Shalom. "Israel and Europe agreed that the emergence of a responsible and democratically accountable Palestinian leadership is vitally important for all future peace efforts," he added.

The European Commission will release €250 million ($332 million) in aid to the Palestinians in 2005, the same as in 2004, said Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU's new Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy. "There was a lot of talk of moderation, of pragmatism, but there was also talk about good elections, elections that have to be facilitated and supported by everyone," the former Austrian diplomat told reporters.

The foreign ministers' discussions addressed the 10th Anniversary of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) or the "Barcelona Process," reviewed its future direction, and considered the partnership's social-cultural dimensions, including the establishment of the Anna Lindh Foundation for inter-cultural dialogue in Alexandria, Egypt.

Critics of the partnership's heretofore lacklustre performance in promoting democratic reform will welcome the commitment of Ferrero-Waldner to "take an honest look at the achievements and the shortcomings" of the process and her promise to present "some concrete new ideas next spring." Some observers argue that the EU has been too timid in using trade and investment to press for political change along its southern periphery. Although the Barcelona Process includes "conditionality" provisions, they are rarely invoked even in cases of consistent abuse of political and human rights.

The review of the Barcelona Process will be completed in time for the next EU Foreign Minister's meeting in Luxembourg in May. The Commission will issue proposals for the 10th anniversary of trhe process, culminating in a heads of state meeting in Barcelona in November 2005. Proposals are likely to address the process's shortcomings on education, particularly of women, and its limited success in promoting reform and modernization.

Each of the association agreements on which the EMP is based contains common provisions on free trade, financial co-operation and social and cultural links. But they also contain a clause on political dialogue which stipulates that "respect for human rights and democratic principles are an essential element" of the accords and allow for suspension in the event of major human rights violations.

The recently-concluded accord with Syria completes the "grid of agreements" with the EU's Mediterranean neighbours. Although the agreement commits signatories to respect for human rights and political liberties, it was signed shortly after Syrian authorities arrested pro-democracy activist Nabil Fayyed and closed his website, on the charge of "publishing forbidden content," specifically articles outlining systematic corruption within the country's Ba'athist elite. Fayyad was recently released after a month in detention.

The Barcelona Process is part of the EU's MEDA program which disburses over €700 million ($935 million) annually to promote economic and political reform, socio-economic development and security co-operation. Together with European Investment Bank contributions, the EU provides nearly €3 billion a year in grants and loans to its Mediterranean partners. MEDA assistance to the region amounts to over €6.156 billion in bilateral and regional co-operation programs since the Barcelona Process was launched in 1995.

….. But Don't Let Mid-East Peace Process Postpone Arab Democracy
It would be a profound mistake to let the Israeli-Palestinian dispute take precedence over democratic reform in the Arab world, argues one leading expert. Contrary to the argument that a dual state solution will enhance prospects for regional democratization, Palestinian aspirations are unlikely to ever be fully satisfied, says Emanuele Ottolenghi, the Italian-born Leone Ginzburg Research Fellow in Israel Studies at the Oxford Centre for Hebrew and Jewish Studies.

The largely European conviction that Arab democratization is conditional on the Palestinian question is wrong, he insists. "Democracy and human rights should not be conditional on anything" and, in any case, "it is doubtful the victims of human rights abuses in the Arab world would feel uplifted on discovering that Palestinian grievances were being addressed. Would Israeli concessions on the so-called right of return make you feel any better if you were sitting in a torture chamber in Damascus?"

"Torture, the stifling of political dissent, gender apartheid, modesty patrols, and oppression of religious minorities have nothing to do with Palestine," Ottolenghi says. "They are instruments of survival for the ruling elites and for oppressive social structures. Even if an independent state of Palestine were to arise tomorrow, those instruments would remain and so would the rulers whose survival depends on oppression; though their main excuse for resisting change and reform might be removed."

European politicians' repeat Arab governments' arguments on the inseparability of the Palestinian question and regional reform, Ottolenghi suggests, simply because "Europe is less interested in Arab democracy than it claims to be."

Cuba Releases Dissidents in Gesture Towards EU
Cuban authorities this week freed several political prisoners in a gesture manifestly designed to curry favor with the European Union which is currently considering the easing of diplomatic sanctions against the dictatorship. The releases came days after Cuba's foreign minister, Felipe Pérez Roque, announced that his country had resumed formal contacts with Spain, despite Madrid's repeated criticism of the crackdown on dissidents last year.

The mass arrests in March 2003, coupled with the execution of three men who tried to escape the island by hijacking a ferry, prompted the European Union, Cuba's most important source of trade and tourism, to impose diplomatic sanctions and to cut planned aid and trade deals. Castro responded by comparing then-Spanish Premier Jose Maria Aznar to Adolph Hitler and describing the EU as "the superpower's Trojan horse," for mirroring US policies.

But the new Spanish government, under socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has led a campaign to lift the EU sanctions. "What we want to do is help the changes, encourage them and demand them if necessary from a political standpoint and from the conviction we have that that regime has to change thoroughly," says Zapatero, who urged Castro to take "rapid, firm steps" toward democracy.

Those freed include dissident writer Raúl Rivero, "Cuba's Vaclav Havel", and opposition activist Osvaldo Alfonso Valdés, both of whom were among 75 dissidents arrested in the March 2003 crackdown. Charged with “acts against the independence or territorial integrity of the state,” they were tried under a facilitated procedure, which, under articles 479 and 480 of Cuba's criminal code, is supposed to be applied only in “exceptional circumstances.” All of the freed activists, who were serving sentences from 15 to 25 years, had experienced health problems within Cuba's notorious prison system. The communist authorities appeared anxious to avoid having any of the dissidents die while incarcerated.

The Paris-based advocacy group Reporters Without Borders welcomed Rivero's release but demanded that Cuba free 24 independent journalists still in jail. "Rivero's release is great news for democracy advocates everywhere," the group said. "But it must not be forgotten that Cuba's human rights record remains worse than it was before his arrest, and that the regime still controls the media and the country with an iron hand."

“Cuba's release of these political prisoners is a welcome move, but many more remain incarcerated in violation of their fundamental rights,” said José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. The dissidents were released on parole (licencia extrapenal), rather than released unconditionally. “By granting them parole only, the Cuban government leaves open the possibility of returning the dissidents to prison to serve out their sentences in the future,” said Vivanco. “It's a way of intimidating them from exercising their fundamental rights.”

The overtures by Havana come only a month after Spain lodged a protest after the communist authorities refused entry to a Spanish politician from the opposition Popular Party and two Dutch colleagues. In recognition of the plight of Cuba's political prisoners, the Madrid –based FAES Foundation has launched a Manifesto for the Liberation of Cuban Prisoners of Conscience.

The need to prepare for a post-Castro regime is invoked by Zapatero and others who have argued for the lifting of sanctions. A recent study on post-Castro scenarios suggests that efforts to maintain the island's communist system will likely falter but that a democratic alternative is also ”only a remote possibility.” “Cuba's civil-society and market actors appear to be too embryonic, and democratic political opposition forces too decimated, for democracy to take hold naturally,” according to Cuba after Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments, a research paper from the RAND Corporation. Confronted by an alienated younger generation, racial division, an aging population, and a severely deformed economy, an attempt at military rule is the most likely scenario.

Mozambique Elects First New President in 18 Years
Mozambicans went to the polls this week to elect a replacement for President Joaquim Chissano after 18 years in office. President Joaquim Chissano is stepping down after two elected terms. Seventeen parties were in the running for the new Parliament also decided in voting ending Thursday.

Chissano's hand-picked successor, Armando Guebuza, from the ruling Frelimo party and former rebel leader Afonso Dhlakama of the opposition Renamo party were the leading candidates. But Raul Domingo, a former deputy to Dhlakama who seceded to form his own Party for Development, Democracy and Good Governance, could force a run-off in three weeks' time.

But on the second day of the election, even before voting had finished, Dhlakama was already accusing the ruling party of electoral fraud. The elections were marked by a low turnout, largely due to bad weather.

International organizations hold up Mozambique as an African success story, having kept the peace after a brutal 16-year civil war that followed independence from Portugal in 1975, in which more than a million people were killed and some 5 million became refugees. The economy now enjoys a growth rate averaging over 7 percent a year, but more than two-thirds of the country's 19 million people still live on less than a dollar a day.

Absence of Muslim Democracy a Cause of Terrorism: Al Jazeera Chief
The absence of democracy, compounded by the dogmatism and obscurantism prevailing in Islamic societies, is a root cause of the terrorism afflicting the Islamic world, says the director general of Al-Jazeera satellite television. "Our societies have been closed. Our political regimes have not opened up. The absence of democracy has created an environment where many people reject reality," said Al-Jazeera executive Wadah Khanfar. "Any tension, corruption or violence in our society is the result of the absence of a culture of tolerance and a lack of respect for the freedom of expression," he added.

Iranian Women's Rights Defenders, Bloggers Detained
The World Movement for Democracy has expressed its concern for the safety of two Iranian women activists arrested recently. Fereshteh Ghazi, an online journalist, was arrested in her office on October 28, and Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh, editor of a women's rights journal “Farzaneh,” was arrested at her home on November 2, 2004. Both have been denied the right to legal counsel.

Abbasgholizadeh has conducted civil society capacity building programs as Director of the NGO Training Center in Tehran. Ghazi has used her skills to create an increased awareness of the status of women in Iran using the Internet. Over the past two months, a string of Internet writers and civil society activists have been arrested for “propaganda against the regime, endangering national security, inciting public unrest, and insulting sacred belief,” according to Jamal Karimi Rad, the judiciary's spokesman.

Amnesty International reports that Ghazi and Abbasgholizadeh are among 25 internet journalists and civil society activists arbitrarily arrested in recent weeks. The Women's Learning Partnership, a World Movement participating organization, has been contacted by colleagues asking them to help bring attention to the plight of civil society activists in Iran.

For details of how to protest these arrests and demand the immediate release of Fereshteh Ghazi and Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh, click here.

The mullahs' efforts to stifle free expression continued this week with the arrest of five webloggers in less than two months, the latest on 28 November. Three webloggers identified only by their first names -- Dariush, Omid and Payvand--were arrested on 29 October. Mojtaba Saminejad was arrested at the beginning of November for speaking out against the arrest of his three colleagues in his blog. "The government is now attacking blogs, the last bastion of freedom on a network that is experiencing ever tighter control," said Reporters Without Borders. "At the same time, an Iranian delegate is sitting on a UN-created working group on Internet governance. The international community should condemn this masquerade," it added.

The latest arrests come as conservative forces are entrenching their power in Tehran and taking advantage of the eclipse of reformist forces left in disarray by the failure of President Mohammad Khatami to confront the Council of Guardians and other conservative bastions. The dilemma facing Iranian democrats is that while society is increading liberal, secular and reformist, the key power centers remain under the control of the hardline mullahs.

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