In a new paper, Political Reform in the Arab World: A New Ferment?, she cautions that “talk about reform exceeds actual reform implemented” and that modest reforms enacted by Arab regimes do not yet affect their authoritarian character. Nevertheless “the ferment is real and should not be dismissed as inconsequential.” Political reform has emerged as an issue of regional concern. Previously taboo topics such as term limits for the region's rulers are being openly discussed. A major constraint, however, is the absence of any popular movement for democratization to put serious pressure on governing elites. Liberal democrats remain isolated and largely restricted to the ranks of intellectuals, journalists, and civil society activists.

The absence of a democratic movement is a concern shared by Shlomo Avineri, professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “No Arab country has seen… either a grassroots movement towards democracy or a reformist leader who is trying to reform the country in a democratic direction,” says Avineri, former Director-General of Israel's Foreign Ministry. “There has not been an Arab Lech Walesa or an Arab Solidarity movement . . . nor has there been an Arab Gorbachev, or an Arab Attaturk,” he notes.

Within certain Islamist groups, moderates have gained some rhetorical and programmatic concessions to democratic norms and institutions, says Hawthorne. The March 2004 manifesto issued by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is a case in point, calling for parliamentary government albeit within an Islamic framework. Yet the moderates' influence “remains marginal” within the wider Islamist movement, she notes.

The role of external forces in promoting reform remains highly contentious with even reformers showing “at best a very grudging attitude.” Nevertheless, there are certainly democrats and reformers “who openly call for the United States to take an active role in promoting democracy,” many of whom “don't believe democratic change is possible without influence from the outside.” Arab regimes are conceding more political space while setting strict limits on challenges to the status quo, “showing tolerance, or even approval, for regional meetings that issue general statements about democracy, while cracking down on domestic political activism that touches on specific issues of local concern.” Some proponents of reform seem prepared to accept the constraints and incremental gains afforded by this "repressive tolerance."

External Actors Challenges on Mideast Reform
Such “objective collusion between moderates seeking authenticity and governments wanting only to survive and consolidate themselves” is one of the key challenges Western actors face in their democratizing efforts, argues Roberto Aliboni from the International Affairs Institute in Rome. External actors need to work at “reducing perceptions of intrusion,” suggests Aliboni, contributing to a symposium of the Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission, a network of 70 foreign policy and security research institutes drawn from the 35 member-states of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP).

Arab regimes “favour limited, gradual and controllable processes of reform,” says Volker Perthes, head of Middle East and Africa research at the Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) in Berlin. Individual countries will choose different paths to modernize reflecting their own specific circumstances, says Perthes. He identifies three distinct approaches: an Egyptian way, entailing reform through the ruling party, a Jordanian approach based on increasing participation, and a Bahraini-style commitment to gradual constitutionalism.

Ruling elites tend to embrace forms of modernization or development that preclude regime change or genuine democratization. This results in liberalized or "pluralist authoritarianism" in which governments acknowledge the diversity of societal and political interests and there are genuine democratic gains -- more representative legislatures and greater media freedom, for example. But political competition for leadership positions remains limited or non-existent. “It is a path of political modernization that is both based upon and aims at 'representation without competition," Perthes suggests.

Given that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to reform in the Arab world, external actors should pay heed to certain key principles, including acceptance of the complexity of political change. Breaking down democracy into such elements as the rule of law, judicial independence, free and fair elections, and strengthening civil society, may make it easier to engage local elites and “create common interests rather than fears of externally enforced regime change.”

External agencies should also “focus on structures, not persons.” Since reform entails long-term change, Europe and other Western agencies should help local actors build credible structures that enhance reform. Individual leaders may sometimes obstruct change but their removal is the prerogative of local forces.

Western Cooperation Vital for Nurturing Arab Democracy – Nye
Just as democracy proved to be compatible with indigenous values in Asia, the Arab world can develop the social forces and institutions that nurture democratization consistent with local cultures, argues Joseph S. Nye, former Assistant US Secretary of Defense. But sustainable democratization requires policies that open up economies, reduce regulations, accelerate growth, and encourage the incremental reforms now seen in parts of the Gulf, Jordan, and Morocco. “Equally important will be whether Western countries cooperate to create a long-term strategy of cultural and educational exchanges that can help develop a richer and more open civil society in Middle Eastern countries,” says Nye. Local ownership is just as critical. “The most effective advocates for democratic change are not American or European officials, but citizens of the region who understand Western virtues as well as flaws -- and can adapt them to indigenous conditions to press for social change.”

The indispensability of a coordinated Western approach is echoed by German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. "There cannot be world order without the US. It is the only country that can project global power," says Fischer. "Neither the US nor Europe alone can defend against the totalitarian threat of terrorism. The West must ... find a way to create a strategic consensus," he told a recent meeting hosted by the London School of Economics and the Center for European Reform. Afghanistan showed what can be achieved if countries cooperate. Efforts to create counterbalances to American power are irrelevant, he suggested.

… And Civil Society Has Crucial Role to Play
Middle Eastern regimes believe Western policies are designed to undermine them and amount to interference in their internal affairs, says Abdallah Homouda, an Egyptian writer and journalist, while the peoples of the region consider the West supports regimes favorable to its interests regardless of their commitment to real reform. The solution to this credibility problem lies in forging links between NGOs on both sides, not least in order to relay internal calls for reform to Western policy makers.

As reported in the last Democracy Digest, civil society groups from within the region are already meeting and coordinating activities both with each other and with their supporters in Europe, North America and beyond. The "civil society dialogue" dimension of the Forum for the Future provides activists from across the Middle East -- and Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey – with the political space to formulate and present demands. The recent Beirut declaration proposing "three imperatives" for reform -- freedom, democracy and justice – itself emerged from such a consortium. Participating groups included the Arab NGO Network for Development, the Cairo Institute for Human Rights, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, the University of Bahrain, Yemen's Human Rights Information and Training Center, Saudi Arabia's King Saud University, the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, the Iraqi Foundation for Development and Democracy, the Algerian League for the Defense of Human Rights, the Center for Arab Women Research and Training and the University of Algiers.

Arab, Muslim and Middle Eastern American NGOs are indeed “the perfect bridge” between the US and the people of the broader Middle East and North Africa, says Walid Maalouf, USAID Director for Public Diplomacy for Middle Eastern Affairs. “They are the best vehicle for reform and democracy because they believe in it and they live it every day,” he told a recent NGO Summit for Peace and Prosperity in Washington, DC. The meeting, designed to engage leaders from the Arab, Muslim and Middle Eastern American community, was addressed by Paula Dobriansky, Under Secretary for Global Affairs, Elliott Abrams, Special Assistant to the President for Near East and North African Affairs and USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios.

... But Chirac Opposes "Interference" in Arab Regimes
French President Jacques Chirac Friday has publicly criticized the Middle East reform initiatives emerging from the G8 Sea Island summit as unmerited US-sponsored interference in the region. “We support modernization which comes as a result of consultations, cooperation between states,” Chirac told a news conference. “On the other hand, we think that nothing can be imposed. In other words, modernization yes, interference no.” Chirac was accompanied by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak who has sought designed to turn key European partners against the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative.

Franco-American competition on Arab reform is less surprising than Arab regimes' insistence that reform cannot be promoted externally, argues Rashid Khashana, writing in Al-Hayat. By retarding the development of indigenous civil society, these regimes are generating the reasons for reform to come from outside.

Mubarak had earlier met with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi who also agreed that solution could be imposed on the region from outside. “The countries concerned must be directly involved in the evolution of any initiative,” said Berlusconi. Italy agreed at Sea Island to assume joint leadership – with Yemen and Turkey -- of the Democracy Assistance Dialogue, one of the projects associated with the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative to which Mubarak and certain other regional autocrats have been vehemently opposed.

International Pressure Mounts to Halt Sumate Prosecution
Venezuela's President, Hugo Chavez, faces growing international pressure to stop the prosecution of the civil association group that helped petition for August's presidential recall referendum. Alejandro Plaz and Maria Corina Machado, directors of Sumate, have been served arrest warrants on charges of conspiracy. If convicted, they face 16 years in prison. US presidential candidate John Kerry last week called on Chavez to “immediately stop these politically-inspired prosecutions and begin fulfilling his promise to move Venezuela forward to a truly democratic future.” He noted that while President Chavez declared after the referendum a willingness to work together with the opposition, “instead, he has chosen to prosecute some members for the 'crime' of accepting a small grant from the US National Endowment for Democracy to promote the referendum.”

NED-funded activities in Venezuela are an attempt to bolster democratic institutions rather than a partisan intervention, two US Congressmen – and NED board members -- argued in an open letter published as a full page advertisement in El Nacional, the leading Venezuelan newspaper. The Congressmen -- California Republican Christopher Cox and New York Democrat Gregory Meeks -- addressed several myths, including the belief that NED, an independent NGO, is an arm of the US government. “Additional misperceptions about NED include that it operates covertly, that it is linked to US intelligence agencies, or that its purpose is to destabilize governments around the world unfriendly to US interests,” the letter continues. “Although none of these charges is the least bit accurate, they have the effect of tainting upstanding civic groups who have received the Endowment's support in order to strengthen democratic processes and institutions in Venezuela."

The US State Department is following the Sumate case closely, said Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher, and is concerned that prosecution would constitute “a violation of basic standards of justice and human rights.” The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights is to send a mission to Venezuela after describing the Sumate case as ''worrying'' and condemning a draft media law for stifling free speech.

Chavez vowed to push forward with his “Bolivarian revolution" on Monday, shortly after his supporters' candidates took all but two of 23 governorships in regional elections. The National Elections Council announced early Monday that an interim vote count gave pro-government candidates 21 governorships and the mayoralty of Caracas, the capital. Several government opponents refused to accept results showing they were defeated.

The government deployed troops on Tuesday in the two opposition-held states where regional election results were delayed. Troops surrounded the office of Governor Eduardo Lapi in Yaracuy state. Lapi accused Chavez of carrying out a coup d'etat against him.

Chavez cited the regional election results, and the presidential election victory of Uruguayan socialist Tabare Vazquez, as evidence that Latin America is gradually shifting to the left. Chavez "is convinced he represents the head of the new left in Latin America," says Alfredo Keller, a leading pollster in Caracas, who accuses Chavez of using state funds to finance other leftist candidates in Latin America. Jose Manuel Boccardo, a former manager at the state-run oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) before the strike agrees. "He wants to use the money of PDVSA as a political weapon," says Jose Manuel Boccardo, a manager at the company before the strike. "He wants PDVSA to be the cash cow for his geopolitical strategy."

But anti-Chavez forces had been split on whether to participate in a vote overseen by the National Elections Council, which they considered discredited after it endorsed Chavez's referendum victory. They were also unable to agree a common slate with the result that many races pitted a single pro-Chavez candidate against several opposition candidates.

Chavez “will continue to find ways to subvert democracy in his own country,” says Condoleeza Rice, the US National Security Adviser. The key is to mobilize forces in the region to monitor and to pressure the regime. “We're hopeful that the recognition that he's not following a democratic course will help mobilize the Organization of American States to do that,” as the OAS did with some success in Peru, “making it costly at least politically for Chavez to carry out anti-democratic activities either at home or in the region.” “We need to continue to support democratic institutions in Venezuela through the programs of the National Endowment for Democracy,” says Senator Richard G. Lugar, the chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. But isolating Chavez will only strengthen him domestically and undermine US relations in the region. Instead, says the senator, “we need a muscular engagement with a clear agenda to promote democratic values.”

Contenders to Face Off After Close Election in Ukraine
Ukraine's incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych emerged as only a marginal leader after last Sunday's highly contested presidential election with barely 41 percent of the vote, according to the Central Elections Commission. With more than 94 percent of votes counted, returns showed Yanukovich with 40.12 percent against 39.15 for opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko.

Candidates need more than 50 percent of the vote to win outright. Since no candidate won more than 50 percent of the first round votes, a runoff will be held on Nov. 21. There were 24 candidates on the ballot.

Yushchenko claimed the result as "a victory for the democratic forces." Preliminary results suggest the vote was split along regional lines, with Yanukovych enjoying support in the pro-Russian east and Crimea while Yushchenko was stronger in the Europe-oriented west. The Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU), the country's largest non-partisan election monitoring group cast doubt on official figures, suggesting that the two leading candidates each received 39.6 percent of the vote in an election characterized as a “battle between democracy and authoritarianism.”

Exit polls of 20,000 people throughout the country were conducted by a consortium of non-governmental and polling groups, including the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Razumkov Center, the Socis Institute, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology and the Social Monitoring group.

The vote followed a campaign marked by widespread abuse and interference by officials. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and its Poland-based Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights stated that the campaign was marred by official support for Yanukovych, restrictions on the media and by detentions, harassment and beatings of opposition activists. "There are many allegations of pressure on workers ... to campaign and vote for Yanukovych," the OSCE said. The joint mission representing the OSCE, Council of Europe, European Parliament and NATO cited state media bias in favour of one of Yanukovych and state forces' obstruction of opposition activities.

The observers called on Ukrainian authorities to prosecute first round violations committed in the first round, and said that the second round gave the authorities another chance. "Ukraine now has three weeks to show that it is willing to organize democratic elections in accordance with its commitments," says Doros Christodoulides, delegation leader of the Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly.

Freedom House lent its voice to a call by the European Monitoring Network (ENEMO) to Ukraine's political leaders, media, and civic organizations urging them to ensure a level playing field for both candidates in the November 21st second round. ENEMO is a group of civic organizations from 16 countries of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe who have observed more than 110 national elections and trained more than 100,000 election monitors.

The campaign was marked by blatant interference by Russia.  “For months Kremlin spin doctors aiding the Yanukovych campaign have used a strategy of splitting Ukraine's multicultural society along linguistic, ethnic and religious fault lines,” warned Borys Tarasyuk, an elected deputy, in the Moscow Times. Ballot security is vital, argues Tarasyuk, Ukraine's Foreign Minister from 1998 to 2000, stressing the importance of election commissioners' impartiality in the face of inevitable pressure from “local authorities and rogue police officers instructed by Kuchma's machine to deliver the vote it wants.”

Iryna Bekeshkina of the Kiev-based Democratic Initiatives Foundation says the purportedly neutral Russian Club was agitating for a Yanukovych victory. The Russian Club funded a pre-election expenses-paid conference in Kiev which generated stories suggesting that Western efforts to secure a level playing field were no more than a re-run of Cold War antagonisms.

Independent NGOs confirmed that Russia was openly promoting Yanukovych. The Ukraine election, says one observer, showcased “Russia's emerging ability to use campaign consultants, electioneering and political spin beyond its borders to pursue its long-term objective of retaining influence in former Soviet republics."

In a joint declaration, EU ambassadors warned the authorities that the campaign had given "cause for serious concerns” about Ukraine's compliance with all relevant international standards. The EU has faced criticism for not encouraging democratic development in Ukraine and particularly for failing to exploit its European Neighbourhood Policy to foster democratic reform. In a paper for the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies, Marius Vahl argues that the EU must send the “appropriate signals” concerning the conduct of the elections.

If the presidential election is stolen, the US and EU should institute visa bans against the individuals responsible as well as “other targeted penalties,” US Senator John McCain has demanded.  “If Ukraine's leaders wish to take their country further in the direction of Belarus, then they will be increasingly treated by the world like the leader of Belarus -- an international pariah,” says the Republican senator from Arizona. Two senior members of the House of Representatives' International Relations Committee, Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) and Howard Berman (D-CA), have already put forward a bipartisan resolution which will deny visas to Ukrainian government officials if the presidential election is not free and fair.

Incumbent Wins "Flawed" Tunisian Elections
In a slight departure from Soviet-style electoral landslides, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his ruling Constitutional Democratic Rally claimed a mere 94.5 percent of the vote in Tunisia's recent presidential and parliamentary elections deemed unfair by opposition groups and external observers.

The CDP, in power for more than four decades, retained control of the 189-seat parliament. Opposition parties are granted 38 parliamentary seats despite their poor electoral showing because Tunisian law mandates that no party can hold more than 80 percent of parliamentary seats.

"These are not the results of a democratic country but of a totalitarian regime," said Nejib Chebbi, a leading opposition leader. "It's a well-staged play and a kidnapping of the democratic process aimed at giving a certain aspect of legality to the dictatorship,” said Moncef Marzouqi, a leading democracy advocate and head of the Congress for the Republic, a legally-unrecognized opposition party. Radwan A. Masmoudi, a Tunisian exile and President of the Washington-based Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy, told Democracy Digest that "Tunisia has the potential to become the best democracy in the Arab world, but yet continues to disappoint Tunisians and friends of Tunisia alike."

Tunisia's leading opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), withdrew its candidates prior to the elections saying the government had obstructed their efforts to communicate with voters. The DPP had already announced it would boycott the presidential race, fearing the election would open the door to a presidency-for-life.

US officials were muted in their criticism of the election, reluctant to alienate a regime that has given at least rhetorical support to efforts to promote reform and good governance in the region. "There were serious flaws, and the flaws were that the opportunity and political space for meaningful opposition ... doesn't really exist," said one official. The US remained concerned about restrictions on freedom of speech, political activity, media access as well as blatant "intimidation (and) harassment." "Opening up the political process in Tunisia is important," he added, while denying that the US administration was muting its criticism. The State Department's language was designed to encourage "movement in a positive direction" rather than cause opponents of reform to "dig in their heels, and fail to open up."  

The European Union managed to be even less critical. It noted that the election “did not provide a level playing field for contenders” and expressed the wish to see “fuller freedom of expression and association”. But the EU welcomed “that the electorate had a choice of candidates,” congratulated Ben Ali on his re-election and commended him on his accomplishments in office.

Amnesty International has expressed concern about recent intimidation and harassment of critics and opposition figures. On 13 October, democracy advocate Moncef Marzouqi was stopped and interrogated at Tunis airport en route to Paris to participate in a conference of the Tunisian opposition. He was allowed to travel but was charged with participating in an unauthorized meeting, running an illegal political party and “attacking the morals of the nation.” Jallel Zoughlami, founder of the unauthorized newspaper Qaws al-Karama (Arch of Dignity) and his brother Nejib have been detained since 22 September.