Internal Champions, External Supporters Push Reform Agenda
On the other hand, some Arab rulers have moved decisively away from the standard excuses used to deny democracy to the region's peoples. Some Western politicians and commentators continue to insist that genuine reform must await a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But, says Dubai's Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, "I cannot see why a crisis, no matter how severe, should delay economic reform or plans to eradicate illiteracy." "What is the relation," he asked the recent Arab Strategy Forum, "between foreign affairs and corruption?"

After decades of authoritarian rule, marked by regional flirtations with fascism, communism and fundamentalist Islam, democracy will not emerge easily or cheaply. "But there is more of a foundation for it than many pundits would lead you to believe,” says one commentator, noting that “Egypt, the demographic and cultural powerhouse of the Arab world, has been experimenting with parliamentary institutions since the mid-19th century.”

The advanced democracies will play a critical role in supporting home-grown initiatives for change, albeit with different strategic emphases. The European Union's Barcelona Process, for example, stresses economic development and governance -– a focus that has brought criticism for neglecting political reform and human rights. “You need to engage in economic exchange in the interest of good economic development,” argues Wolfgang Thierse, president of Germany's Bundestag. “But it's also important to contribute towards democratization in these countries through political and civil society contacts. Particularly in countries where there isn't any real social justice and where young people don't have enough of a democratic voice.” “Democratization and liberalization processes … are also important for economic interests,” Thierse insists, “because a closed society will in the end never be successful economically.

Despite the inevitable conspiracy theories (democratization as “a cover all along for a more sinister plan by Washington” etc., etc.), it is clear that the United States' manifest commitment to reform, coupled with such initiatives as the G8-inspired Forum for the Future and Democracy Assistance Dialogue, have sent a clear signal that the regional status quo is no longer sustainable. “Washington's new advocacy of democratization …. has made authoritarian governments squirm and has emboldened reformers,” says Joshua Muravchik, resident scholar at the Washington DC-based American Enterprise Institute. “And won't it be humiliating if the Iraqis under occupation select their own government while other Arabs, untouched by foreign domination, aren't permitted to do so?”

Palestinian Elections Confirm Promise of Reform –- But Possible Pitfalls Ahead
"In 1996, the PA [Palestinian Authority] told us they were going to turn the country into Singapore. Instead of Singapore, we got Somalia," a Palestinian observer commented after last Sunday's Palestinian presidential elections. Such disillusion was probably a factor in the low turnout. Yet hopes and expectations are riding high that newly-elected PA president Mahmoud Abbas will move quickly to curb the corruption, factional violence and terrorist acts that stifled Palestinian development and prospects for peace under Yasir Arafat's rule.

The scale of the task facing Abbas is hinted at by the German daily Die Welt's suggestion that he "should take two people as examples: Kemal Ataturk and Nelson Mandela." But curbing corruption will be “vital to the creation of a viable and democratic Palestinian entity”, writes RAND's Seth Jones in the Financial Times. The World Bank's governance indicators rank the PA in the bottom 16 per cent of states in terms of its ability to control corruption.

The resignation of Jibril al-Rajoub, a leading security official and West Bank strongman rival to Gaza's Mohamed Dahlan, suggests that Abbas is at least moving quickly to restructure the PA's notoriously corrupt and fractious security forces. Their reform is essential if Abbas is to have any hope of curbing the likes of Hamas and Fatah's own Al-Aqsa Brigades both of which have dismissed his calls to halt the terrorism of their 'armed struggle.'

Elections a Precedent for Arab World and Catalyst for Internal Reform?
Many observers express the hope that the Palestinian poll –- soon to be followed by Iraq's first election -- will enhance prospects for democratization across the Middle East. "The Palestinian elections have created a model in the Arab world that Arabs, Palestinians can hold competitive elections in a fair, peaceful way and reach a fair conclusion," said Cairo University's Mohammed el-Sayed Selim. "However, at a higher level of analysis, still many Arab regimes are trying to pursue a piecemeal approach, which is not congruent with the expectations of the Arab masses.” Similarly, Mark Stevens, deputy head of the EU observation mission, believes "elections lead to legitimacy and stability, and that's what everybody wants to see here, for the people of the country, first and foremost, and for the regional knock-on effect."

An Abbas presidency may yet disturb the delicate factional balance that underpins Fatah. Under Arafat, “Fatah was successful in uniting its divisions,” Samir Ghattas told a recent meeting of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies. Jurisdictions over the PLO machinery, Fatah and the security services were allocated in a separation of powers that is unlikely to continue under Abbas, says Ghattas, Director of the Maqdis Center for Political Studies.

Palestinian reformers “don't expect [Abbas] to produce a revolution [but]…. see him beginning a process with leading reformers and the new guard of Fatah brought into his Cabinet,” says Dennis Ross of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former U.S. envoy to the Middle East under Presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.

Some observers suggest that Mustafa Barghouti's candidacy might help prompt a realignment in Palestinian politics, with the secular Left becoming an effective rival to the Islamists as alternatives to Fatah. "Barghouti may be the focus of a new democratic third force to stand between Fatah and Hamas," according to Hani al-Masri, of the Ramallah-based daily, al-Ayyam. "If that trend goes on, it will show people disillusioned with Fatah that they have somewhere else to go apart from the Islamists."

Other commentators are less sanguine, noting Hamas's success in December's municipal elections. The PA's new president will need to assert his authority not only over terrorist groups and rogue security services but within Fatah. “That powerful (though undisciplined) organization is still in the hands of hardliners who are not ready for a real peace with Israel or genuine democracy,” while “existing ideologies and political structures are in conflict with democratic processes," cautions Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center.

“Having elections without thoroughly transforming Palestinian society is simply not enough,” says Uri Dromi, director of international outreach at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. While genuine Palestinian democrats -- “true heroes” -- are pushing for change, “the minds of thousands of schoolchildren are being brainwashed by textbooks and media controlled by the Palestinian Authority.” Others suggest that Palestinian democratization necessarily entails a long-term “policy of destabilization, in which an entire political culture must be usurped.”

The need for democratic reform finds support from progressive Palestinian intellectual Shaker Al-Nabulsi, writing in the Qatari daily Al-Raya, who believes Abbas must transcend the legacy of Arafat -- "a bone in the throat of the Palestinian cause" – by refraining from populist decision-making, building constitutional institutions, and engaging intellectuals and business figures in developing a Palestinian state. “Decision-making should not be carried out by the leader, but by the constitutional institutions, the elected legislative authority, and the advisors in educational and research institutes,” Al-Nabulsi insists. Civil society institutions “should replace the social institutions which were established by the armed religious factions.”

Transatlantic Consensus in Welcoming Abbas Election, Expecting Reform
Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief, called on the new Palestinian leader to turn the Palestinian Authority "from a pre-state to a state.." The European Commission contributed €14 million (US$18.5m) to the holding of elections and Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso suggested that assistance would be forthcoming for future legislative elections. Embarking on an electoral process to choose a new leader showed the “demand for democracy” amongst the Palestinian people, said Michel Rocard, the European Union's chief election observer.

The EU mission's preliminary statement identified the "widespread problem" of PA institutions and resources employed on behalf of the candidacy of Mahmoud Abbas, noting that he received 94% of election coverage airtime on Palestinian TV. Nevertheless, the mission found that the election was “vigorously contested” and “represented a genuine effort to conduct a regular election process”. The “spirit and numbers in which the Palestinian people registered and participated are strong indicators of a will to follow the path of the rule of law and popular participation,” it concluded.

President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair welcomed Palestinian elections as the first step towards establishing the democratic institutions and culture they consider a prerequisite of both a Palestinian state and peace with Israel. But even relatively moderate Palestinian voices have dismissed this strategy as a "neocon agenda." "You don't use democracy for justifying the existence of states,” complains Hanan Ashrawi, in an apparent departure from the democratic conviction that governments derive legitimate power from the consent of the governed. “Self-determination for Palestinians is a right that has to be implemented as a way of bringing peace and stability to the region. You don't make a state dependent on its system of government."

Orange Revolution Prompts Democracy Promotion Debate
This week's confirmation by Ukraine's electoral commission that Viktor Yushchenko officially won the re-run presidential election saw democracy supporters start the year on a high. The Orange Revolution recalled earlier efforts to shrug off tyranny within Moscow's 'sphere of influence.'

Yushchenko moved quickly to promise political reform and curbs on corruption while diplomatically recognizing the necessity of close relations with Russia. But while democrats have taken heart from Yushchenko's victory and even lauded it as a model for other countries considered “unripe” for democracy, other commentators -- interestingly enough, from both the Right and the Left -- complained of Western interference and the abuse of democracy promotion for covert foreign policy objectives.

Jonathan Steele, senior foreign correspondent for the UK's Guardian newspaper, responded to critics of his earlier slurs against the Yuschenko campaign by complaining that “democracy is too important to be left to individual governments with special agendas.” His allegations of selective intervention and funding (“Why are only certain countries picked? Georgia, but not Azerbaijan. Serbia, but not Croatia. Zimbabwe, but not Egypt.”) might seem ill-informed to agencies which have funded democrats in all six countries. Steele's quixotic suggestion that “the major role [in democracy promotion] should go to the United Nations” not only neglects the constraints of the UN constitution. It also suggests blissful ignorance of the deplorable record of the UN Human Rights Commission in turning a blind eye to – if not explicitly rewarding –- a litany of repressive regimes.

Democracy, of course, is neither a European nor an American conspiracy. “Westerners did not create or control the Ukrainian democratic movement but rather supported its cause on the margins,” notes Michael McFaul, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and associate professor at Stanford University. Democracy promotion agencies “do not have a recipe for revolution,” says McFaul, a former staffer with the National Democratic Institute in Moscow. “If the domestic conditions aren't ripe, there will be no democratic breakthrough, no matter how crafted the technical assistance or how strategically invested the small grants. In fact, Western democracy promoters work in most developing democracies in the world, yet democratic transitions are rare.” Democracy promotion should be governed by certain basic principles, argues Timothy Garton Ash, not least of which is a commitment to transparency. “You can find the list of Ukrainian nongovernmental organizations supported by the National Endowment for Democracy and by George Soros's foundation”, as well as other Western donors, Garton Ash notes. But look in vain for the even greater sums –- up to $200 million, he estimates -– that Putin's Russia provided for government forces in Kiev.

The advanced democracies have not maintained a consistent or well-resourced commitment to democracy promotion. Democratization has yet to acquire the status of a foreign policy priority on either side of the Atlantic, a fact that should prompt greater transatlantic collaboration between democracy promoters. “Implementation has often been inconsistent, tentative, and hypocritical,” says Arch Puddington of Freedom House. “But at the very least, the West's embrace of democracy promotion has encouraged freedom's advocates and set standards for governmental performance.” In Ukraine, Puddington notes, the advanced democracies “did nothing more than insist that basic election standards be fulfilled, but this modest gesture contributed to the year's most important gain for freedom.”

UN Democracy Caucus Finding Its Voice
With the United Nations embroiled in financial scandal and its moral authority under scrutiny, several member states are hoping a new caucus of democratic states will help restore its reputation, efficacy and the reform of UN institutions. States from Eastern and Central Europe took the lead in initiating a UN Democracy Caucus, alongside other newly democratic states like Chile whose UN ambassador Heraldo Munoz, chairs the caucus. "Democracy [has] arrived to stay as part of the agenda of the United Nations even though the charter of the United Nations does not refer to democracy,” says Munoz.

It is no accident that states with recent experience of totalitarian or authoritarian rule are in the driving seat. "Some democracies have become too complacent,” says Andras Simonyi, Hungary's ambassador to the United States. “They take democracy for granted, they don't see the dangers that always loom over democracies and we kind of remind ourselves of the not too distant past.” The caucus is being driven by states whose leaders have “personally lived through dictatorship or exile and are now in power and appreciate the value of international community pressure on democratic reforms and what can be done from the outside, says Ted Piccone, executive director of the Democracy Coalition Project.

But the caucus has received only lukewarm support from the European Union. “With the exception of Italy and Portugal, most EU support for the caucus comes from Central European states like the Czech Republic and Poland,” leading activists have complained. “Key countries like France, Britain and Germany will need to be more engaged in urging multilateral cooperation among democratic countries.”

NEWS IN BRIEF

Syrian Wins Martin Ennals Award for Human Rights Defenders
Aksam Noaisse, the Chairman of the Committees for the Defense of Democratic Liberties and Human Rights in Syria has won the prestigious Martin Ennals Award. Noaisse was one of the founding members of the Committees, created in 1989, and of the publication "Sawt al-Dimokratiyyah" (voice of democracy). Naisse has courageously spoken out in national, regional and international forums. He has been arrested six times, held incommunicado and tortured. He is currently not allowed to travel abroad. A trial against him will resume on 16 January 2005 and he risks 15 years prison.

The Martin Ennals Award for Human Rights Defenders (MEA) is a unique collaboration among eleven of the world's leading non-governmental human rights organizations to give protection to human rights defenders worldwide. The jury comprises Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Human Rights First, International Federation for Human Rights, the International Commission of Jurists, World Organization Against Torture, German Diakonie, International Service for Human Rights, International Alert, Huridocs and DCI.

Arab Liberalism and Democracy
An edited transcript of a Democracy Digest-sponsored forum on Arab Liberalism and Democracy in the Middle East held at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is now available in the Middle East Review of International Affairs.

Building Democracy After Conflict
The 15th anniversary issue of the Journal of Democracy focuses on the theme of Building Democracy After Conflict. In an article featured on the JOD website, Larry Diamond discusses the lessons of Iraq (the full text is available here.) The issue also features an overview on post-conflict institution-building by Marc F. Plattner; Larry Goodson on the dangers of Afghanistan lapsing into “failed-state” status; Gerald Knaus and Marcus Cox analyze why the European Union has been so successful in transforming candidate countries but failed to promote democracy in Bosnia and Kosovo; Andrew Reynolds discusses the art or science of designing constitutions; the case for shared sovereignty is examined by Stephen D. Krasner; and Francis Fukuyama dissects the meaning of “stateness”

Conflict Prevention Network
The European Union's Europe Aid Co-operation Office has launched a call for proposals for a "Pilot Project to establish a Conflict Prevention Network." The network will be made up of civil society organizations, including research institutions, and be expected to deliver the best available expertise, combining rigorous analysis with pragmatic field-level work and employ practical tools as well as accurate information. The deadline for submission of preliminary proposals is 1st March 2005, 16:00 Brussels time.

OPPORTUNITIES

Director of Development, Freedom House, Washington, DC.
Freedom House seeks an experienced Director of Development, with a proven record of fundraising/development skills and results, to plan and to implement private fundraising responsibilities including: managing a multi-million dollar capital campaign; cultivating major individual gifts; researching and preparing foundation, corporate and government grant proposals; coordinating the production of an annual appeal and other collateral fundraising pieces; producing special donor events; implementing and overseeing a planned giving program and managing the donor database. The Director of Development will work primarily with Executive Staff, potential donors, Freedom House partners, and board members. Contact Information: Megan Schmidt; Phone: 202 296 5101; humanresources@freedomhouse.org

Senior Program Manager, Iraq, National Democratic Institute
Interested applicants should apply using NDI's on-line resumé tool.

EVENTS

January 18, 2005, 12-1 pm. Middle East Institute, 1761 N Street, NW, Washington, DC
Moderate Islam and the Fruits of Economic Development.
Speaker: Stephen Glain, Newsweek International and author of Merchants, Mullahs and Militants. The deepest threat to Middle East stability is not radical Islam but the economic malaise that feeds it. Arab governments discredited by failing public services, stagnant capital markets, and a regional economy that cannot keep pace with its soaring population empowers Islamist groups and their networks of schools, hospitals, and civic centers. A former Middle East correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, Glain argues that there can be no democracy in the Arab world without a robust Arab middle class to sustain it and suggests measures the Bush administration and Western partners can take to address the problems that fuel regional instability, not their symptoms. RSVP is required to this event and reservations are accepted as space allows. Email: rsvp@mideasti.org.

January 26, 2005, 5:30-7:00 pm, 2168 Rayburn House Building, Washington DC.
The Thorolf Rafto Foundation for Human Rights, Uyghur American Association & The National Endowment for Democracy, in conjunction with the Congressional Human Rights Caucus.
Award ceremony & reception in honor of 2004 Rafto Memorial Prize laureate Ms. Rebiya Kadeer.
Rebiya Kadeer, a prisoner of conscience in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (also known as East Turkistan), China, is a prominent symbol of the Uyghurs' struggle for basic human rights. Please join a special ceremony presenting the 2004 Rafto Memorial Prize, as announced in Bergen, Norway on November 7, 2004. Through this award, the Rafto Foundation directs a strong appeal to the Chinese government to respect and protect the civil, economic and cultural rights of the Uyghurs as well as other minorities in China. The Rafto Foundation is concerned about Ms. Kadeer's health and urges her immediate and unconditional release. RSVP by 5 pm January 24, by email to info@uyghuramerican.org, by phone to (202) 349-1494, or by fax to (202) 349-1491.