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Iran: security forces’ role, elite coherence critical to prospects for transition

By Michael Allen on June 26, 2009

In a review of 16 cases of rigged elections in authoritarian or transition countries over the last 40 years, Minxin Pei and Ali Wyne, find that autocrats who try to steal elections had roughly an equal chance of retaining power, succumbing to defeat, or getting stuck in a political stalemate.
The coherence of the ruling class [read full story]

Posted in Elections, Human rights, Iran, Islam/politics, Middle East and North Africa, authoritarianism, promoting democracy, protests | Tagged , , | Leave a response

Autocrats offer no long-term alternative to liberal democracy

By Michael Allen on August 28, 2008

The S.C.O.’s refusal to okay Russian aggression adds weight to NED board member Francis Fukuyama’s contention that “today’s authoritarian governments have little in common, save their lack of democratic institutions.”
He stresses the need to distinguish between different types of autocrats. Russia and China present “a combination of authoritarianism and modernization that offers a clear challenge [read full story]

Posted in Asia, Backlash, Eurasia, Regions | Tagged , , , | 1 Response

Appealling Autocrats, Disillusioned Democrats?

By Michael Allen on July 25, 2008

Growing divisions between the club of autocrats and the axis of democracy have profound implications for the international system, argues Robert Kagan in The Return Of History And The End Of Dreams. “Is it possible any longer to speak of an ‘international community’”, when “the term implies agreement on international norms of behavior, an international [read full story]

Posted in Regions | Tagged , | Leave a response

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