An end to the political impasse in Honduras may be in sight after both sides
Ortega, Chavez and Zelaya have used creeping coups to undermine democracy
agreed a US-mediated formula to defuse the constitutional crisis. But prospects for a settlement remain uncertain with some comparing the negotiations to an elephant balancing on a tightrope.
While some commentators have criticized the deal as a capitulation to authoritarian populist forces, others suggest that it provides the most democratically-legitimate way of resolving the dispute.
“Allowing the coup to stand would have signaled to would-be coup plotters in the region that election years offer opportune moments to overthrow democratically-elected presidents,” write Christopher Sabatini and Daniel Altschuler.
They acknowledge that deposed President Manual Zelaya “abused his position and ran roughshod over democratic institutions,” but insist he will be constrained within a coalition government.
They criticize the recent Congressional Research Service (CRS) report that largely justifies the coup, citing a subsequent rebuttal of its claims.
The deal provides for U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis and former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos joining a delegation responsible for monitoring a power-sharing government. The country’s Supreme Court will need to authorize the Congress to agree to allow Zelaya to serve out his term.
But some analysts fear that if the court and Congress cannot agree it will trigger a constitutional crisis.
With one constitutional crisis potentially resolved, another is emerging in neighboring Nicaragua where Daniel Ortega is following the “creeping coup” strategy of fellow populists to end constitutional term limits.
The real danger to democracy stems from “Zelaya’s and Ortega’s tricks–a golpe desde el estado, in contrast to a golpe de estado, a coup from the state rather than against the state,” writes analyst Javier Corrales.
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