Events in Iran bear a striking resemblance to the “color revolutions” in post-communist Europe, notes political scientist Joshua A. Tucker, an associate professor of politics at New York University and a National Security Fellow at the Truman National Security Project:
Pre-election polls predicted a surprisingly competitive election in an erstwhile authoritarian country. Following the election, both sides claimed victory amid allegations of serious electoral fraud. Supporters of the opposition candidate took to the streets, and even had a color–green–lined up to give them the moniker of the “green revolution.”
The principal differences, however, are that executive power in Iran lies with a Supreme Leader who is not subject to election, and that the regime has drawn the following lessons from its post-communist counterparts which have arguably allowed the authorities to pre-empt a genuine democratic transition:
- if you are going to fix an election, give yourself a big margin of victory;
- don’t allow enough transparency to expose hard evidence of electoral fraud, such as parallel vote counts or exit polls;
- ensure that security forces are prepared to crack heads – or worse – to defend the regime;
- minimize the impact of information and communications technology, especially text messaging and social networking tools like Facebook and Twitter.
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