Social reform and robust parties key to sustaining Pakistan’s democracy

The prospect of state collapse leading to the Taliban taking control of over a nuclear-armed Pakistan is “not only a gross exaggeration, it could also lead to misguided policy prescriptions,” writes Hussain Haqqani, the country’s ambassador to the United States.

“Panicked reactions” to the Taliban’s move into Buner, a mere 60 miles from the capital Islamabad “are not conducive to strengthening Pakistani democracy or to effective counterterrorist policy, he claims, reminding us that in the February 2008 elections that restored democracy, Pakistanis “overwhelmingly rejected Taliban sympathizers and advocates of extremist Islamist ideologies.”

But “the transition to democracy has done little to change the dynamics of political power,” argues Aqil Shah, a former Reagan-Fascell fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy. “The politicians appear too busy protecting their flanks to realize the gravity of the situation.”

Pakistan’s long term security will be determined by its economic viability, Haqqani insists, as proposed by the Kerry-Lugar legislation:

An economically prosperous Pakistan will be less susceptible to the ideology of international terrorism — and it will become a model to a billion Muslims across the world that Islam and modernity under democracy are not only compatible, but can thrive together.

Such a scenario appears rather distant given that the Taliban’s recent advances in the Swat valley have been based in part on their success in exploiting class divisions and popular resentment at widespread corruption within a “largely feudal” system. “This was a bloody revolution in Swat,” said a senior official. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it sweeps the established order of Pakistan.”

The threat to the state comes not just from the Taliban, but from indigenous Islamist groups who believe, as Qazi Hussain Ahmad, until recently the leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami party, said this week, that Pakistan “is not just any state based on geographical entities.. [but] is the embodiment of a definite ideology and religion.”

Other experts are skeptical that sharia courts will be enough to keep peace in Swat. “The battle being waged against the Pakistani state by militants aligned with al-Qaeda is for state power and not, as is often mistakenly assumed, for the establishment of an Islamic order,” (PDF) according to Ayesha Jalal, a South Asia expert at Tufts University, in testimony to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom.

Maintaining the current balance of military-to-civilian aid will fail to address the problems oft he Federally-Administered Tribal Reas. One observer laments the “sterile, failed policy” that has seen the U.S. spend 96 percent of six billion dollars on military activity in the FATA, and only one percent on development.

“If the same resources and intellectual energy that have been put into the Pakistani military had been put into genuine support for democracy, social progress, and development, we’d be in a very different place today,” argues analyst Shaun Gregory.

A recent report from the Council on Foreign Relations called on the U.S. administration to address the “imbalance between civilian and military power, the dynastic nature of major political parties, and deep social and economic inequality-through serious, sustained U.S. support for a wide variety of educational, social mobilization and reform efforts.”  It also advised that the U.S. “retain flexibility in the midst of intense partisan political competition by engaging in regular, active dialogue with leaders and second-tier officials from the full range of political parties.”

Indeed, the weakness and factionalism of the country’s political parties, still largely based on feudal patronage and personalized leaderships, is both a symptom and a cause of the fragility of Pakistan’s democracy. As Brian Joseph, the NED’s program director for South and South-east Asia has observed, “civil society is an essential and important part of the effort to build democracy, but without strong, transparent, idea-based political parties and strong, independent political institutions, Pakistan will continue to be ripe for military interventions.”