Iran's Green movement is an unprepresentative North Tehran clique, one Washington analyst suggests
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad clearly won last June’s Presidential election, even securing majority support from women and Iranians who view Western news media, while Green protest movement is demonstrably at odds with the country’s mainstream public opinion.
Large majorities of Iranians – including most supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi – accept the legitimacy of clerical rule and remain solidly behind the Islamic Republic and its political institutions, including the Supreme Leader.
The Islamic Republic is not about to implode and, far from representing a threat to the US and Israel, Ahmedinejad is an Anwar Sadat-type figure who could deliver a huge strategic re-alignment to US and Israeli advantage.
These were some of the – perhaps counter-intuitive – insights to be gleaned from a meeting in Washington today.
The University of Maryland’s Steven Kull outlined new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll findings that some 90% of Iranian survey respondents are satisfied with the system of government, 60% approve of the clerical veto power over laws considered un-Islamic and 55% consider the Supreme Leader’s authority consistent with democratic principles.
“There is little evidence to support the hypotheses that Ahmedinejad did not win the election, that the government is considered illegitimate or that the opposition would be more favorable to US interests,” Kull said.
A majority of Mousavi supporters hold unfavorable views of the US and the current administration, and insist on Iran’s right to pursue its nuclear program.
But there is a “dark cloud” over such data, said Jon Cohen, Director of Polling for The Washington Post, given the authoritarian context. He had “grave doubt” about the validity of polls conducted in the midst of a political crackdown.
While the findings should be considered seriously, there was “nothing conclusive” in this new data. The low response rate – only 48% – was significant and “we should be extraordinarily skeptical” about data collected in such circumstances.
Outsiders should be very wary of Iranians’ survey responses, said Hooman Majd, author of The Ayatollah Begs to Differ. Most Iranians are deeply suspicious and distrustful of strangers, and are unlikely to respond sincerely to telephone canvassers from overseas.
Current calls for the US to pursue regime change in Iran conjured up memories of the clamor for war with Iraq for Flynt Leverett, director of the New America Foundation’s Iran Initiative. Think tank wonks and journalists who had their heads turned in elite North Tehran were misleading the US public and policy-makers.
The US should continue with its overtures to Tehran and look to Ahmedinejad to “do a Sadat” by delivering a major strategic re-alignment in the region to the US and Israel’s advantage, much as the previously maligned Egyptian leader did by signing the Camp David accords.
Iran is not Egypt and Ahmedinejad is a “thin reed” on which to base US policy, said Barbara Slavin, author of Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation, as he is widely detested even amongst the regime’s stalwarts. While she continued to be a proponent of engagement, there is no denying that recent months have witnessed deteriorating support for the regime and a level of repression that has prompted many Iranians, including former regime insiders, to question its legitimacy.
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