The Obama administration today expressed “concern about a crackdown” in the wake of the protests. “There is something happening inside Iranian society,” a spokesman said. “It’s hard to predict how it will unfold.
Tens of thousands of mourners turned Montazeri's funeral procession into another protest against the regime
“We ask Western governments not to use this internal situation as a bargaining chip with the present Iranian Government to reach agreements which would undermine the rights of the Iranian people,” said Mehdi Karroubi, one of the opposition’s most conspicuous spokesmen.
“In today’s Iran, republicanism and Islamism are severely damaged and a lot of the revolution’s principles and the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini]’s have been undermined,” he complained.
But Karroubi, along with fellow opposition figure Mir Hosein Mousavi, appear increasingly marginal, trying to defend or revive the Islamic Republic within a green opposition that appears more inclined to push for regime change and a more secular, democratic republic.
A leading founder of the Islamic Republic and a former confidant to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Montazeri recently urged the regime to “correct their wrong way and gain people’s and God’s satisfaction” following the post-election turmoil.
“Killing, intimidation, threats, arrests, illegal trials against Islamic sharia law, heavy and unfair sentences of political activists and freedom-seekers will not affect their [the people's] will… in demanding rights,” he said.
The current regime is not a legitimate heir of the 1979 revolution, he insisted. “We didn’t want a mere change in title and slogans while the same oppressions and violations of rights continue under the cover of Islamic government,” he said in a statement posted to his website.
Montazeri “desperately tried to offer a more democratic reading of a concept that has been the chief obstacle to democracy in Iran for the last 30 years,” writes Abbas Milani co-director of Stanford’s Iran Democracy Project, who notes that
….on numerous occasions, he apologized for saddling the nation with the despotism of Velayat-e Fagih, or the guardianship of the clergy; he was the president of the constituent assembly that first drafted the revolutionary constitution and was, more than anyone, responsible for introducing this undemocratic concept into the document…..arguing that he and other founding fathers meant the clergy to only have supervisory role and no executive power.
Islam vs. Islamic Republic?
A former deputy and designated successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, Montazeri was sidelined and placed under house arrest after opposing the mass execution of political prisoners in the 1980s.
But some analysts suggest that Montazeri was a Trotsky-like figure – an architect of a brutally repressive regime who only turned against it when he had been marginalized. As Ali Alfoneh notes here, he only belatedly criticized the legitimacy of Velayat-E Faqih.
While critical of the regime, he was specifically scornful of the ascendancy of the Revolutionary Guards at the expense of the clergy. The “Islamic Republic is neither Islamic nor republic; it is a military government,” Montazeri argued.
“Everyone knows I am a defender of theocratic government, although not in the current form. The difference lies in the fact that I intended for the people to choose the jurist and supervise his work,” he argued. “I now feel ashamed of the tyranny conducted under this banner. What we see now is the government of a military guardianship, not the guardian of Islamic scholars.”
Some green opposition activists were devastated by the news of Montazeri’s death.
“This is a great loss for the Green Movement, and it will hurt us greatly,” said one Tehran activist. “Because of his status, he had a sort of immunity which allowed him to at least mention some of the most dangerous issues.”
The dissident cleric’s passing is “certainly a blow to the opposition, but it shouldn’t dramatically affect their fortunes,” notes Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour. “It could also prove a catalyst for more protests, especially given the fact that he died during Muharram [a Shi'ite holy month that celebrates martyrdom].”
The cleric’s death also creates problems for the ruling elite.
“Montazeri’s death could not have come at a worse time for the regime and it will rachet up the tensions considerably,” said Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at the University of St Andrews. “This has made an extremely fragile situation even worse for the Government and it will be scrambling to find a way to deal with it.”
Some observers consider Grand Ayatollah Yousef Sanei, another clerical critic of the regime, to be the second best alternative, but he lacks the religious seniority or revolutionary credentials that Montazeri brought to the opposition.
The opposition and the regime are currently deadlocked, analysts suggest.
“The demonstrators can’t dislodge the government, and so far they have not been able to build a broader national movement,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations. “But the government is also stuck: they don’t want to shoot people or move to a broader crackdown, so they’re left hoping this all fizzles out.”
Yet the green opposition has taken advantage of every opportunity, including recent official days of protest, to demonstrate its resilience.
“Any time there’s an opportunity, they pour into the street,” said Saeed Rahnema, an Iranian and professor of political science at York University in Toronto. “The Iranian civil society is taking advantage of every single moment to come out and object [to the government's leadership].”
New opportunities for the green opposition to mobilize begin on December 18, the start of the months of Muharram and Safar in the Islamic lunar calendar, during which Shiites mourn the martyr Hossein whose divine sacrifice, writes Mehdi Khalaji, is “associated with the principles of truth and justice as opposed to unjust and cruel leadership.”
“In virtually all cities and villages where Shiites live, mosques and homes are potential centers for a civil and democratic movement in opposition to the government,” writes Khalaji, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute. The occasion presents the regime with a dilemma:
If the government avoids violence out of respect for the religious values of Muharram and Safar, it could mean two months of open challenges to the fundamentals of the Islamic Republic’s ideology. But if the government cracks down on religious displays, resentment against the Islamic Republic could increase significantly.
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