Weak or failing states will be the principal source of global instability in the 21st century, not emerging authoritarian powers, claims a leading analyst.
“Russia has a one-dimensional economy and is hobbled by corruption and a shrinking population,” writes Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, while China is “constrained by its enormous population and a top-heavy political system.”
The main threat comes from weak states, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Haiti, Mexico, and Congo:
What they have in common (in addition to the fact that many, like Iraq, are located in the greater Middle East) are governments that lack the capacity, the will, or both to rule. They are unable to exercise what is expected of sovereign governments—namely, control over what goes on within their own territory.
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