The eventual winner of Ukraine’s presidential election will now be determined in a second round run-off on February 7 between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.
President Victor Yushchenko, the principal leader of the 2004 Orange Revolution, placed fifth as voters held him responsible for the subsequent political paralysis and economic crisis. Nevertheless, notes one analyst, he “deserves credit for his democratic instincts [as]…Yanukovych’s return to political prominence after being cast aside following the Orange Revolution reflects the democratic space that Yushchenko created.”
The 2010 elections may not be as dramatic as the 2004 poll, but they set an important regional example, said the National Endowment for Democracy’s Nadia Diuk, in a roundtable discussion on Voice of America (scroll down). She highlighted public disenchantment with a political process widely perceived as run in the interests of oligarchs and big business, with the result that the electorate is not fully engaged in politics between elections.
Ukrainians’ estrangement from the political process is evident from public opinion soundings. They emerge as the most dissatisfied of all former Eastern bloc citizens from a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, only unhappy with their current leaders and economic circumstances, but also disillusioned with democracy and capitalism.
Despite disillusionment with the Orange Revolution, democratic institutions appear robust and civil society is developing countervailing powers to the oligarchs and entrenched political establishment.
International monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe and other groups said that the elections met democratic standards. “Democratic standards and mechanisms have made a great step ahead and have stabilized democracy in Ukraine,” said Pawel Kowal, head of a European Parliament delegation.
“The explosion of new grass-roots organizations, from media watch groups and e-civic initiatives to rock-the-vote campaigns, promises at least some elements of a democratic society,” writes Laryssa Chomiak.
An albeit fragile democratic culture has emerged too, characterized by an expectation on the part of Ukrainian citizens that they have a right to determine their country’s future. “Ukrainians are ready to be mobilized,” says Dmytro Potekhin, a civil society activist. “There’s just no one to mobilize them.”
The 2004 Orange Revolution was such a shock to the Kremlin’s authoritarian elite, that it was described as Russia’s 9/11 by Ivan Krastev of Bulgaria’s Centre for Liberal Strategies. The democratic transition was probably the single most important factor in accelerating the subsequent backlash against democracy on the part of authoritarian regimes anxious at the prospect of electoral revolutions.
The scenario of popular protests, mobilized through civil society and opposition groups, pressuring ruling elites to surrender power, prompted a re-assessment of strategies and political technologies required to maintain authoritarian rule.
The color revolutions have since been invoked and exploited by repressive regimes to portray democracy assistance as regime change by stealth and to justify clamping down on allegedly subversive activities. “In our country, there will be no pink or orange, or even banana revolution,” President Alexander Lukashenka of Belarus commented.
Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbaev justified proposed restrictions on NGO activity by citing, “the dangers that arose in neighboring countries when foreign NGOs insolently pumped in money and destabilized society.”
But some analysts suggest that Russia will now emerge as the main beneficiary of Ukraine’s political turmoil and economic crisis:
Mindful of its humiliation after the 2004 Orange Revolution, the Russian leadership will respond cautiously this time. Nevertheless, Russia will now be sucked into the Ukrainian crisis, motivated by potential geopolitical gains and asset-acquisition opportunities, as well as a natural interest in doing what it can to prevent a financial and economic debacle in Ukraine to preserve regional stability and bilateral trade between the two countries.
Russia`s pressure with “soft” support of EU and US “kind inattention” made Ukrainians feel helpless in a crisis.The vote`s results reflects this .