Have President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and the Revolutionary Guard effectively assumed power at the expense of the Supreme Leader? Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “is either a toy in the hands of Ahmadinejad, and the Revolutionary Guard, or he shares their crimes,” Mahoud Tehrani, Khamenei’s nephew, tells RFE/RL.
Many Iranians will interpret recent events as proof that the Islamic Republic “can’t be reformed”, he suggests. But he is sober about the prospects for reformists reversing the hard-liners’ consolidation of power given their proclivity for political violence.
“Whoever doesn’t speak their language and whoever is against them — no matter if it’s a mullah or someone wearing a tie — is considered “mohareb” [those who wage war against God], an enemy of God,” he says. “For the [conservative] camp of the Islamic establishment, violence is like a habit or like a duty — it’s their duty to crack down on the opposition.”
Khamenei today warned opposition figures not to challenge the Islamic Republic. “Confronting the system and drawing a sword against the system will bring a harsh response,” he said.
“The system will not take action against anyone as long as they perform within the framework of the system, do not resort to violence, do not disturb the calm in society and do not carry out unlawful actions such as spreading lies and rumors,” he said during Friday prayers at Tehran University.
Opposition protesters are expected to mobilize next Friday, taking advantage of the annual Quds Day demonstrations against Israel. Khamenei warned critics not to “manipulate” the holiday, but show solidarity with the Palestinians.
Some observers retain the hope that the reformists may yet prevail, providing the West with an alternative to confronting a regime apparently bent on acquiring nuclear weapons.
The opposition’s “survival, strengthening and eventual success has become the most viable option available for satisfactorily resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis short of war,” writes John Hannah, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Working with its allies, the US needs to make clear that the Islamic republic will not get away cost-free if it moves against the opposition’s top leaders.”
But others suggest that Washington has already taken the view that the reformists have been vanquished and that, moreover, the dilution or de facto abandonment of albeit flawed efforts to support Iran’s reformists is meant to be seen in Tehran as a signal of good will as the administration seeks to engage the regime.
Iran: Supreme Leader – or subordinate pawn?
Contrary to what a lot of people in Washington do think, Khamenei is still in charge of Iran. Neither the President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad nor the Revolutionary Guard effectively assumed power at the expense of the Supreme Leader.
This orchersterated confusion is one of many pieces used par the Khamenei regime to distract the attention of the international community in general, and the U.S. in particular.
The roles of Ahmadinejad and the top RGC officials in the current and grave political crisis are transcript in a way making the Iranian nationalism stronger than in the past. They’re now called to show the tough face of the Islamic Republic to permit their TOP Leader Khamenei to show later some overture toward Washington. It’s the Iranian game.