Hossein Taeb’s promotion reflects the ascendancy of hardline neo-fundamentalists
Dealing with Iran’s nuclear program should not be at the expense of democratic and human rights, says Nobel Peace laureate and lawyer Shirin Ebadi. She accused Washington of turning a blind eye to human rights violations as it seeks to engage Tehran over its nuclear program.
A democratic Iran would be unlikely to seek a nuclear bomb, she said, and even if it did, the weapon would not be a threat to the U.S. or Israel.
The Obama administration has been criticized by activists for cutting funds to groups working on democracy and human rights in Iran, reportedly as a gesture of good faith to the Islamic Republic.
Some analysts believe that the Green movement has fizzled out and that a spate of arrests and sentences of reformist protesters confirm that regime has effectively consolidated its control.
Recent death sentences are designed to intimidate regime opponents, former reformist legislator Fatemeh Haghighatjoo believes. “It’s even possible that they would arrest the leaders of the opposition movement,” she said.
But reformist leaders and activists alike insist that the Green movement remains vibrant. The movement is undertaking a strategic review, some suggest, while sporadic protests continue, such as the demonstrations at Tehran’s normally a-political Azad university this week that were attacked by pro-regime Basiji militia.
Reformist former president Mohammad Khatami insists the protests will continue. “If we go along with people’s demand, we will reach our goals quicker and in a less costly manner,” he said.
The Green movement’s attributes provide grounds for optimism, argues filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the Paris-based spokesman for opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, including: the sheer size of the opposition, reflected in the unprecedented electoral turnout and the three million-strong marching on June 15 despite the violent repression; the movement’s breadth and diversity; its growing momentum and radicalization; a decentralized and grassroots leadership that “helps it invent diverse and creative ways of fighting for its goal”; its potent symbolism; and its civil, peaceful, and secular orientation.
At a recent meeting in Europe, Iranian activists, including figures close to the Green movement leadership, urged that strong sanctions be imposed on the regime, specifically targeting businesses owned by the Revolutionary Guards. A weak or gradual approach would only allow the regime to adjust, and sanctions should be accompanied by a strong publicity campaign that explained their rationale to the Iranian people.
In this battle for hearts and minds, independent media are a critical factor in sustaining Iran’s reformist Green movement and undermining the Islamic Republic, analysts suggest. The regime agrees.
“Nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons are just a distraction,” Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad said recently. “Today, the enemy’s main weaponry is the media,” he said.
The West should accelerate efforts to provide Iran’s opposition with access to independent media and to software that allows them to evade or overcome internet censorship and blocking techniques.
“Maybe there is no need for either military actions or tougher economic sanctions that are widely thought to be counterproductive or ineffective,” writes RFE/RL’s Abbas Djavadi. “Providing Iranian people with tools of better communication and information would do the job, in concert with other political and economic components.”
But the regime is making contingency plans to frustrate what it sees as the Green movement’s attempts to replicate the color revolutions’ “soft power” techniques of regime change. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei this week announced changes in the Revolutionary Guards that suggest a twin-track approach of intensified, if selective, “hard power” repression and “soft” ideological and intelligence work.
Khamenei appointed the notoriously brutal Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the former head of police counter-intelligence, to head the Basij. He also chose Hossein Taeb to run the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization. Taeb served as the ministry of intelligence’s counter-intelligence director and played a leading role in suppressing recent protests.
“In light of the enemy’s focus on soft warfare and the necessity of strengthening the security-intelligence apparatus to confront it,” he said, noting that Taeb “is familiar with various kinds of intelligence and soft warfare.”
Taeb’s elevation reflects the ascendancy of the neo-fundamentalists pushing for the “re-Islamization” of the regime. If the this bloc, structured around Khamenei, Ahmedinejad and the Revolutionary Guard “is able to further concentrate its power, it will not only bode ill for the beleaguered domestic opposition but also dash any hope of an international resolution to Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” notes one analyst, even if the Green movement “cannot be easily bullied into submission.”
While the regime may be consolidating domestically, the post-election protests have seriously undermined its legitimacy and its reputation in the Arab world that had been buoyed by its anti-Israeli stance and support for Hamas and Hizbollah.
“None of that should suggest that Iran’s appeal and activism will fade soon. But the narrative of a mighty, cohesive Islamic Republic has taken a serious hit that should be exploited now,” writes analyst Emile Hokayem.
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