Credit: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Analysts and activists alike are mourning the loss of Christopher Boucek, a noted Yemen expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who died suddenly on 2 November. His expert analysis on the current political turmoil in Yemen – and Libya – was widely cited in the media and notably paired a realistic assessment of the balance of forces with empathy for democratic actors.

While “there needs to be a transitional process” in Yemen, he recently observed, President Ali Abdullah Saleh retains significant advantages as “the legitimately elected president” and “the single dominating force” in the country.

“While scholars and analysts of the Middle East can sometimes be as capricious as the region itself, Chris was a notable exception,” writes Karim Sadjadpour:

He was remarkably mild-mannered and sweet-natured, and as hundreds of condolences on Twitter can attest to, an incredibly kind and decent human being. “Pure of heart and character”, is how my colleague Tom Carothers put it.  Chris had done path-breaking research on disengagement and rehabilitation programs for Islamist militants and extremists. In foreign policy jargon this was the “soft power component of the war on terror”.  In real life jargon what it revealed about him was that he had a unique sense of empathy, and in another life he would have made for a wonderful social worker or high school counselor.

Intissar Fakir pays tribute to her friend and former colleague:

Yesterday the community of Middle East experts lost an outstanding scholar and we all lost a great friend.  Christopher Boucek passed away at his home at the age of 38, survived by a young wife and two beautiful daughters.

I got to know Chris as a colleague at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace where he established a stellar reputation as a foremost scholar on Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Gulf security and Sahel security; topics to which he brought integrity, passion, and dedication.  Chris was extraordinarily intelligent and humble to boot; his wonderful demeanor and the goodness of his heart were obvious to all. His humility was touching, his intellectual rigor inspiring and his sense of humor endearing. He had a way of nurturing and supporting curious minds. He found time for everyone, and all who knew him would testify to his generosity and humanity.

Chris’s contributions on Yemen were most impactful, particularly at a time when the majority of analysts insisted in looking at the country through the prism of terrorism alone. Chris argued for, supported, and himself adopted a holistic approach to Yemen.  While his promising career was cut tragically short, the foundation he set will endure.

We will all miss his contributions to Middle East research and analysis and those of us who were lucky enough to know him; we will miss a superior young man, who made our lives a little bit richer, and a little bit brighter.

Chris:  we loved you well, we will remember you well.

Rest in peace, dear friend.

Intissar Fakir is a special assistant to the deputy president at the National Endowment for Democracy.

The death of Muammar Gadhafi ends a chapter of despotic rule but is also likely to sound the gun for a race for power in a state lacking many of the norms and institutions needed to ensure a peaceful political transition.

“Years of tyranny and dictatorship have now been closed,” said Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, the National Transitional Council vice chairman, in Benghazi today. But analysts remain concerned that divisions within the NTC and between rival regional centers of power could generate a fresh round of violent conflict.

The dictator’s demise came a day after a leading secular technocrat declared his intention to step down from the National Transitional Council on the grounds that moderate forces lack the “finances, organization, arms and ideologies” their adversaries possess.

Gadhafi’s death may prove to be a mixed blessing for the provisional authorities, some suggest.

“There is now this massive expectation. Up to now they’ve had an excuse that they are running a war. They don’t have that now … Everything now has got to happen,” Libya analyst John Hamilton told Reuters. “That’s a hard task. They have to deliver for the people … On the other hand, this may renew the honeymoon they enjoyed when Tripoli fell.”

“One year ago, the notion of a free Libya seemed impossible,” US President Barack Obama said today, welcoming “a momentous day” in the country’s history.

“The dark shadow of tyranny has been lifted, and with this enormous promise, the Libyan people now have a great responsibility: to build an inclusive, tolerant and democratic Libya that stands as the ultimate rebuke to Gadhafi’s dictatorship,” he said.

“We are under no illusions. Libya will travel a long and winding road to full democracy,” said Obama, offering US assistance to facilitate the country’s democratic transition.

Other observers are more cautious than optimistic.

“The division of the country poses unprecedented challenges,” said Nicolo Sartori, an analyst at Rome’s Institute for International Affairs, said in a phone interview. “The transition will probably be even more difficult compared to Egypt or Tunisia, because there’s no clear leadership, the power is very fragmented, there are big interests at stake and there’s no institution strong enough to handle all this.”

Some analysts fear that political instability and factional violence may undermine efforts at reconciliation and reconstruction.

“Gaddafi is now a martyr and thus can become the rallying point for irredentist or tribal violence — perhaps not in the immediate future but in the medium-to-long term,” said George Joffe, a North Africa expert at Cambridge University. “The fact that NATO can be blamed for his death is worrying, in terms of regional support, and may undermine the legitimacy of the National Transitional Council.”

A day before Gaddafi’s death, interim prime minister Mahmoud Jibril told TIME he planned to resign, citing internal power struggles for his decision.

“We have moved into a political struggle with no boundaries,” he said. “The political struggle requires finances, organization, arms and ideologies. I am afraid I don’t have any of this.”

In November 2009, the US ambassador to Libya described Jibril as “a serious interlocutor who ‘gets’ the US perspective”. Before the uprising, he was involved in a project called “Libyan Vision” which sought to lay the foundations of a civil democratic state. But he appears to have lost out in the internal power struggle with influential an influential imam and Islamist military factions.

“Jibril’s comment about lacking an ideology is telling,” Time suggests:

As has been the case in Egypt and Tunisia, the Islamists have a natural advantage over many of the other groups who took up the fight against Gaddafi in that their political vision — in Libya’s case of a moderate Islamic democracy on friendly terms with the West — has no established ideological competitor with mass appeal.  Many of the other groups who fought in the frontline were often organized on the basis of tribal or regional affinities, which offer little basis for national electoral appeal.

Other analysts cite Libya’s tribal diversity as a potential source of political combustibility.

“We would actually feel fairly pessimistic about the prospects for this [transition] to be successful and stable,” says Prof. Michael Greig, an expert in international conflict management at the University of North Texas. “One of the key factors for survival of a new democracy is the social cohesion of the society,” says Greig, drawing on his analysis of 41 political transitions over the last 170 years. “The more diverse the society, the less stable these new regimes tend to be.”

But the likelihood of Iraq-style sectarian violence is mitigated, he suggests, by the fact that Libya’s political transition is an indigenous process and not externally imposed.

Even though they played a vital military role in deposing Gadhafi, Western powers must resist the temptation to demand a “peace dividend” in the shape of preferential business contracts, according to Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com and Sami Zaptia, CEO of KnowLibya.

“Surely no amount of oil, construction, infrastructure, or defense contracts can be better than a strong, moderate, and stable Libya that learns to select its business partners based on their merits rather than their nationality,” they argue:

We believe the alliance powers should not ask the NTC to prostitute Libya’s vast treasure. Doing so would only cheapen the tremendous value of what the NATO alliance has done for Libya. The only true way the Libyans can repay the rest of the world for liberating them from Gadhafi is not through kickbacks, but by making the tough choices required to lay the foundation of a democratic, meritocratic, and economically open future.

Libyans will also need to confront the toxic residues of Gadhafi’s authoritarian legacy, says Wayne White, an adjunct scholar with the Washington-based Middle East Institute,

“He ruled with a divide and rule system pitting tribe against tribe, creating regional rivalries, and he also stifled civil society to such a degree that it will be a hard job for the NTC, its successors and even rebels who have spent too much time fighting to settle down into a period of not being rebels and form a government,” he says.

“It is important that its leadership unites to build a democratic future for the country in full respect for human rights. While the crimes of the past must be addressed, the leadership must also seek a path of national reconciliation,” said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. The EU has donated more than 150 million euros ($205 million) in humanitarian assistance to Libya and last month agreed to focus reconstruction aid on border controls, supporting civil society and women’s rights, and strengthening media and communications.

Prospects for democratic transition may hinge on efforts to heal Libya’s political, tribal and regional schisms through a truth and reconciliation commission. Such bodies have facilitated post-conflict settlements in many political transitions over recent years, including in neighboring Morocco,

“The success of any institution like this relies on the credibility of the institution, and that means finding people who are deemed to be credible and who are going to be acceptable to the public,” said Professor William Schabas, a professor of international law at London’s University of Middlesex. “In a country like Libya, that has many different political constituencies, it’s going to be a challenge because even people who do not like the Gadhafi regime are not all going to agree on who is going to do this type of job.”

“Rebuilding Libya into a modern state will be a monumental undertaking,” said Christopher Boucek, an associate in the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During his 42 years in power, Gadhafi deliberately dismantled state institutions and stifled the development of independent civil society, media and local government.

But unlike relatively impoverished Egypt, “Libya has considerable financial and human assets, including the benefits of globalization, increased wealth, and a more educated elite,” according to a recent report from the National Endowment for Democracy. “Young Libyans in particular are demanding not just rights, but responsibilities, while an incipient national civic identity is becoming more powerful.”

Democratic transition and post-conflict transformation “should occur simultaneously,” the report suggests, “though each process has distinctive characteristics and timelines.”

Pre-emptive measures can help avoid potential pitfalls and prepare the NTC, local councils, and civil society for various scenarios, according to a NED forum of Libyan opposition figures, independent analysts and experts on democratic transitions and constitutional design.

In so doing, five major considerations must be taken into account, the forum concluded:

Institutional Constraints. A provisional government must be subjected to clear rules and constraints based on transparency, accountability, and limits on its own power;

Trust and Preemption of Fear. Trust outside of family and tribe, in particular through the support of civic associations working on broad-based social and political issues, must be built. The Gadhafi regime managed to maintain power, in part, through fostering social distrust, even within tribes. Bridging such fissures, particularly between Benghazi and Tripoli, by forging a shared agenda is of paramount importance;

Dealing with the Existing State Apparatus. A balance must be struck between the need to vet and, in some cases, prosecute Gadhafi loyalists and the need to integrate old and new regimes;

Transitional Justice. The establishment of a broadly representative and autonomous human rights commission to deal with rights violations will be needed to achieve justice and reconciliation;

The new constitution should be drafted in a consultative and inclusive process that takes into account the need for local participation without triggering the kind of fragmentation that leads to policy paralysis and/or national disintegration. The electoral system should contribute to that goal through simplicity, transparency, and inclusivity.

The international assistance community should bear in mind four important considerations:

Coordination of Assistance. The international community should be sensitive to the danger of overwhelming the NTC with advice and not allowing leaders the time to perform basic duties. An agency or institution that coordinates and filters offers of assistance (such as the National Endowment for Democracy and its core institutes) would be helpful.

Donors should avoid inundating local councils and civil society organizations with excessive funding that they lack the capacity to effectively use;

Consultation on the Constitution. Options for constitutional design in a post-conflict society should be made available to the NTC, civil society organizations, and citizens in a respectful manner, without seeking to impose a particular model;

Civic Education. Civic education materials in Arabic that foster a democratic culture should be prepared and provided in coordination with local organizations. The possibility of publishing a Web-based inventory of such resources for use in liberated areas should be considered.

RTWT

Violent clashes between government security forces and military units opposed to President Ali Abdullah Saleh killed 12 people in Yemen’s capital today as a prolonged standoff over political transition threatens to degenerate into civil war.

With no likelihood of conciliation among the principal antagonists, observers expected the violence to continue.

“There are spoilers on both sides who are not looking for a compromise or maybe aren’t getting what they want from a compromise,” said April Longley Alley, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Abu Dhabi. “Maybe they feel they could achieve more by escalating right now.”

The United Nations today condemned the excessive use of force by Yemeni government forces against civilian demonstrators in Sana’a. Over 60 protesters were killed by security forces over recent days, with at least 21 fatalities incurred during clashes on Monday as foreign diplomats arrived to discuss a transition road map.

UN envoy Jamal Benomar and the Gulf Cooperation Council Abdul Latif bin Rashid al Zayani are reportedly meeting with Western and Gulf ambassadors to examine prospects for encouraging Vice President Hadi to sign the GCC accord and proceed with a power transfer. 

“While the protesters and marchers have been lauded for their resolve in maintaining a peaceful revolution for the past eight months, even in the face of attacks from security forces and armed gunmen loyal to the regime, the tone of the revolution may be shifting,” a Sana’a-based democracy assistance official reports. “There is a significant increase in anger and frustration among protesters.”

Pro-democracy civil society activists vowed to continue with their peaceful protests despite the escalating violence.

The National Council for the Revolution would carry on “organizing marches every day until the fall of the regime”, said Tawakul Karman (left), a leading democracy activist. “We will not allow thugs to deter us from our goals.”

Monday’s massacre “should be a crystal clear signal that the Yemeni status quo is neither stable nor sustainable, and that the failure to find a political resolution ensures escalating bloodshed and humanitarian crisis,” writes George Washington University’s Marc Lynch. “It is time to push for an immediate political transition — and one which does not include immunity for Saleh’s men.”

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah meeting with Saleh in Riyadh today was meant to send a message, said Christopher Boucek, an associate with Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“The optics of this — looking through a Saudi lens — is that they’re trying to be hands-on and say that the king himself is dealing with this,” said Boucek. “I think the Saudi state is sensitive to what they hear coming out of Yemen — that they’re enabling this.”

The Saudis are maneuvering to “manage” a post-Saleh transition, but they are not as influential as widely thought, Boucek contends. “There isn’t that one candidate who can solve this for them. Saudi Arabia doesn’t have its man in Yemen who they can put on the presidential throne.”

The US is overly fixated on military solutions to the threat of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, says Princeton University’s Gregory Johnsen, but security issues cannot be resolved separately from Yemen’s wider pathologies, he wrote on his Waq al-Waq blog. Both government and anti-Saleh military units are working on alternative scenarios: .

Why lose men, munitions and machines fighting AQAP, at a time when you need to be conserving all three for a civil war you are worried is just over the horizon? Better to lose a province or two, goes the thinking, than the entire state. ……And this is why I have such a problem with the US approach in Yemen. It is looking at the problem backwards. The AQAP problem isn’t going to get better until there is a political solution, and the longer this drags out the worse off Yemen will become.

The violence escalated as Yemeni civil society groups – including the Democratic School, the Youth Leadership Development Foundation, Yemen’s Youth Union, Female Journalists Forum and Al-Noman Cultural Forum – were preparing for a national youth dialogue between anti and pro-government activists.

 “We are still without democracy and without real political agreements between conflicting parties,” independent youth activist Abduljabar Al-Suhili told the Yemen Times. “It’s important to make a dialogue among the political parties before talking about a civil state.”

Tawakkol Karman is head of Women Journalists Without Chains, a media rights NGO supported by the National Endowment for Democracy, the Washington-based democracy assistance group.

Hundreds of thousands protested  in cities and towns across Yemen today against what they view as President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s latest ruse to avoid a genuine transfer of power. 

Have Yemen's civil society groups lost out to tribal and military actors?

“No deal, no maneuvering, the president should leave,” protesters in the capital Sana’a shouted, demonstrating against Saleh’s decision to authorize his vice president Abdo Rabu Mansour Hadi to negotiate a transition plan on his behalf.

The protests coincided with an intensification of violence near the southern city of Zinjibar where Islamic extremists killed three government soldiers and with fresh US warnings that Al-Qaeda’s Yemen-based offshoot is benefitting from the turmoil in the poorest Arab nation.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has “emerged as the most dangerous regional node in the global jihad,” newly appointed CIA director David Petraeus said today.

Although most observers credit the Arab Spring with undermining the jihadists’ appeal, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri this week renewed efforts to take advantage of the region’s upsisings in a new video released by as-Sahab, the group’s media arm.

The opposition Joint Meetings Parties rejected Saleh’s transfer of authority.

“Any talk of a dialogue before signing the Gulf initiative is either an attempt at wasting time or deceiving public opinion,” said JMP spokesman Mohammed Qahtan.

“The JMP calls on the young men and women of the revolution to continue escalating the peaceful revolution until the whole regime falls,” it said in a statement.

But other observers were more positive.

“I think it’s still a very big step,” said prominent Yemeni political analyst, Abdul-Ghani al-Iryani. “Giving legal authority to the vice president allows him to decide what’s best for the country.”

Opposition and civil society groups believe that Saleh – currently recovering in Saudi Arabia from bomb-blast injuries – is playing for time and insist that the president personally endorse a transfer of power to avoid any subsequent ambiguities.

“It is unclear how far Hadi’s negotiating power extends,” notes a Sana’a-based democracy activist. “Regardless, deputizing Hadi falls short of opposition demands that the president personally sign the agreement, and is likely to be viewed as yet another stalling tactic.”

Saleh’s offer to transfer negotiating authority would in any case leave him with considerable authority and leverage in other state institutions. His family “continues to control key military units, mainly in the capital Sana’a,” notes Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University.”

“As Saleh has only transferred authority for negotiating the transition deal,” one report notes, “it appears that the three-month period will only kick off once Hadi signs the [Gulf Cooperation Council] plan in his stead.”

Representatives of youth, women and civil society groups this week established an International Contact Group, comprising teams of experts inside and outside the country, to help the opposition’s specialized committees to prepare for a transition.

It has been suggested that Yemen’s civil society had eclipsed its political parties in the pro-democracy upsurge. But some observers now believe that democracy and civil society groups have been marginalized by tribal politics and military actors as the conflict becomes more violent and polarized. 

Excessive use of force by state security forces is the principal cause of the country’s “increasingly violent struggle,” according to a report from UN human rights investigators released today.

“All sides may be guilty of using and abusing peaceful protesters and the civilian population in this increasingly violent power struggle,” the 23-page UN report concludes.

Some observers believe that early presidential elections remain the best solution to the crisis, but the GGC’s involvement remains essential.

“When we find an early solution to the political deadlock in Yemen, we can shift attention to issues most important relating to the economic and social situations in this poor country,” said Christopher Boucek, a Yemen expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It is necessary that the GCC bloc plays a key role in Yemen at the moment and in the future.”

The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South Central Asian Affairs holds a hearing on Developments in Yemen tomorrow 19 July at 419 Dirksen Bldg., Capitol Hill, featuring Janet Sanderson, deputy assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs; Christa Capozzola, deputy assistant administrator, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development; Daniel Benjamin, coordinator for counterterrorism, Department of State; Christopher Boucek, associate, Carnegie Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Daniel Green, Soref fellow, Washington Institute on Near East Policy.

At least one person was killed today when Yemen security forces opened fire on pro-democracy marchers and several more died in fighting between government forces and opposition supporters in the capital Sanaa.

The country’s exiled president Ali Abdullah Saleh marked the 33rd anniversary of his rise to power with a call for “peaceful dialogue” to end the political stalemate. “We stress the importance of dialogue that depends on peaceful means to solve our problems no matter how difficult and complicated they are, just as we stress solving our differences through democratic methods,” Saleh said.

Today’s violence followed pro-democracy activists’ weekend announcement of a transitional council of military leaders, opposition activists and southern separatists, charged with appointing a ‘shadow cabinet’ of technocrats. The provisional council will establish a 501-seat assembly to draft a new constitution, following a national dialogue on constitutional reform, southern secessionist demands and the Houthi conflict.

The council would “implement the goals and the demands of the people’s youth revolution” over a “transition period not exceeding nine months,” said Tawakkol Karman (left), a prominent civil society activist. She asked “the international community to respect the decisions of young people by recognizing the institutions of the revolution.”

The council could initiate a transition to help the country “find solutions to prevent the country sliding into chaos more than it already is now,” said Horeya Mashoor, a leader of the National Women’s Committee.

But Abdu al-Janadi, Yemen’s deputy information minister, said the move “pours gas on the fire”. Nor is the country’s opposition united in supporting the initiative, according to a Sanaa-based democracy activist:

Islah [Yemen's leading Islamist party] appears to be split, with Mohammed Yadoumi, party chairman, and Mohammed Qattan, head of the executive council, supporting the measure and Islah Secretary General Abdulwahab Al Anisi against it. Controversial cleric Abdul Majid Al Zindani, who has influence with some Islah supporters, has also come out against the council. As a result of the divide, Islah members have made general statements, such as “now is not the time for such an initiative” or “this initiative was announced in haste”….. The Joint Meeting Parties opposition coalition and the Preparatory Committee for National Dialogue (PCND) – despite both political groups having members on the newly announced entity – have not released any statements supporting the formation of the council.

The dissident General Ali Mohsen, commander of the First Armored Division, reportedly expressed his support for the interim council.

“If indicative of Mohsen’s current thinking, it would run counter to statements he made in June, at which time he said he did not support any move to form a parallel or shadow government,” democracy assistance official suggests. “However, there is some speculation that the general is using the youth initiative, and his support of it, to strengthen his position.”

The security forces’ attack on pro-democracy activists followed an earlier march by about 100 journalists protesting harassment and censorship:

Journalists working for independent and anti-government newspapers said they have been attacked and singled-out by security forces. The Center for Rehabilitation and Protection of Freedom of Press in Yemen has documented 465 cases of harassment of journalists in the past six months, which include threats, aggression, and detention….. Editors of seven dailies and weeklies said army and security personnel at checkpoints have recently confiscated and burned copies of independent and anti-government newspapers meant for distribution to cities outside the capital.

One editor complained that he must distribute his daily newspaper in banana boxes to avoid official censors. But the ruse was discovered and security forces in the southern city of Taiz set fire to a bus conveying two independent newspapers, editor Seif al-Haderi told AP.

Tawakkol Karman is head of Women Journalists Without Chains, a media rights NGO supported by the National Endowment for Democracy, the Washington-based democracy assistance group.

Hundreds of thousands of Yemenis demonstrated in major towns across the country today, demanding a transition of power and the prosecution of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his close associates. But observers expect the youthful pro-democracy protest movement will be “squeezed” out of any transitional process.

In the capital, Sana’a, protesters marched on the official residence of Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Yemen’s acting president, where he was meeting opposition parties for the first time since Saleh was flown to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment following the June 3 attack on the presidential compound.

In the largest protests since Saleh’s departure, the demonstrators chanted “The people want a transitional council” and “No dialogue with the remnants of the regime,” calling on Hadi to support democratic reform.

The government and opposition failed to agree on a transition of power to end the four-month-long crisis, but they will form a joint committee to prepare the country for a “democratic transition in the future,” opposition figures claimed.

A senior government official told the Financial Times that political transition was “out of the question” before Saleh’s return.

The opposition expected to discuss the Gulf Cooperation Council initiative, which calls for fresh elections and Saleh’s formal resignation. But Hadi would only discuss restoring order and the withdrawal of the al-Ahmar tribal militia, Saleh’s principal rivals, from Sana’a.

“Both sides described the meeting as a first step toward reconciliation,” The New York Times reports.

Vice president Hadi also met with Leslie Campbell, Middle East and North Africa director for the National Democratic Institute, the Washington-based democracy assistance group. Campbell recently encouraged the U.S. to engage the credible interlocutors it will find within Yemen’s vibrant opposition.

Washington needs to support the youth-based protest movement which has been pressing for democracy but lack the leverage needed to ensure genuine reform and seems likely to lose out to well-armed tribal opposition groups in a settlement brokered by autocratic Gulf states.

“Their voice is the one’s that’s going to get squeezed out,” says Chris Boucek, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We have to make sure that voice doesn’t get drowned out by the elites just reshuffling the deck chairs and restating the status quo.”

Some civil society activists were willing to give Hadi a chance to prove his reformist credentials.

“We not have any problem if Hadi takes control of the government. He is respected by the people,” said Tawakkul Karman, head of Women Journalists Without Chains. But today’s protests suggest growing wariness, and she has warned that Saleh’s return as president would provoke violence.

Karman has been described as “a symbol of the nascent revolution,” representing a new generation , “politicised without being partisan,” with the potential to transcend Yemen’s entrenched divisions:

These protests have taken many different forms: slogans, photo displays, revolutionary songs, theatre, poetry, exhibitions and artists’ workshops, festive and family gatherings, newspapers, websites and community groups, debates and civil disobedience training. Unexpectedly, thousands of tribesmen laid down their arms in favour of peaceful protest and joined the sit-ins. This new form of resistance has shaken received ideas about tribal behaviour (conservatism, backwardness and violence)….. The national flag and anthem have replaced the sectarian and regional symbols of previous protest movements. Many participants and observers wonder whether they should fear Yemeni unity unravelling or whether it is being strengthened. The growing mobilisations and collaboration of different movements have made credible the idea of convergence.

Women Journalists Without Chains is a media rights NGO supported by the National Endowment for Democracy, the Washington-based democracy assistance group.

Yemen’s pro-democracy and civil society activists are celebrating President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s departure for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia as a fresh chance to halt a descent into civil war and initiate a peaceful transition of power.

But is the rejoicing premature?

Vice-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the country’s acting leader, was quoted by the state news agency today as saying Saleh would return within days after recovering from wounds sustained in Friday’s rocket attack on his presidential compound.  Yet analysts question whether his hosts will allow him to return to office.

“The Saudis will seize the opportunity … to extend his medical recovery into a political rest,” said Yemen expert Khaled Fattah. The prospect of the country deteriorating into Somalia-style anarchy was “a nightmare for Saudi national security”.

Yemen‘s government should proceed towards a democratic transition, the Obama administration said today. But observers believe alternative scenarios are feasible.

“Now we might have a small opportunity of trying to move things in the right direction – at this stage nobody has won,” a western diplomat said. “[But] there are elements on both sides who would still like to go for a fight.”

Rebel tribesmen today confirmed their commitment to a ceasefire with government forces, after the truce was jeopardized when two fighters loyal to Sadiq al-Ahmar, chief of the Hashid tribe, were killed by pro-Saleh snipers. Sadiq does not seek to succeed Saleh, a spokesman said.

“We support a power transfer to the vice president because this is the only constitutional solution that guarantees a peaceful transition and saves the country from destruction and bloodshed,” he said.

Nevertheless, with Saleh’s son and nephew in control of elite special forces, “the danger is not yet over,” The Economist warns:

Close relatives of Mr Saleh are still in charge of the best-armed military units, and he still has many passionate supporters in Sana’a. Moreover, even if they agree to terms for a transition of political power, Yemen’s other troubles persist, worsened by the economic crisis brought on by the unrest.

“The complexity of Yemen’s political dynamic almost makes Lebanon seem straightforward,”  said an editorial in the Beirut-based Daily Star.

Whatever its political orientation, a post-Saleh government will need to maintain close links with Washington, said Christopher Boucek, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“There are mutual interests,” he said. “My guess is that there is no money left in the bank, that the economic collapse is even worse than we think. The U.S. can help with economic development, resource depletion, all the things that cause instability. And it can say you also need to help us do something about AQAP.”

The U.S. will find credible interlocutors amongst Yemen’s vibrant and cohesive opposition, says Les Campbell, Middle East and North Africa director for the National Democratic Institute.

“The U.S. still has obviously many interests, particularly the terrorist angle, but the interest of the U.S. is to clear this up as quickly as possible to avoid further uncertainty, and to encourage all the political forces to come together and discuss,” he says.

But any transition is unlikely to be either short or smooth, said Ginny Hill, a Yemen analyst at Chatham House, the London-based foreign policy think-tank.

“One scenario is that there is no formal or stable transition in the short term,” she said. “We’re looking at a contested process over a period of several years.”

The National Democratic Institute is one of the core institutes of the National Endowment for Democracy.

Is Yemen about to become the next failed state? The country faces an “astonishing confluence of unprecedented challenges,” democracy advocates suggest.

The state’s “potential implosion will have a dramatic impact on neighboring states, the region and the international community,” according to Abdulwahab Alkebsi, regional director for the Center for International Private Enterprise, and Christopher Boucek, an associate in the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program.

The principal underlying problem is a “creeping and destructive plague of corruption,” they argue. But that is only the principal ingredient in a toxic political cocktail:

The country faces an astonishing confluence of unprecedented challenges: violent extremism, economic collapse, a looming water shortage and a growing secessionist movement. Any one of these challenges, if left unaddressed, could overwhelm any government. Unless appropriate steps are taken, Yemen risks becoming a failed state and a training ground for terrorism – and its problems could quickly envelop the entire region.

Such urgent and systemic challenges can only be addressed, Alkebsi and Boucek contend, by a partnership of a functional government, international supporters, and civil society. Such an alliance is a precondition for combating corruption and advancing the fragile state’s democratic development.

To this end, the National Endowment for Democracy supports CIPE’s work with local partners on programs addressing issues of economic reform, transparency, and corruption. Such initiatives are designed to empower Yemeni citizens, enhance participation and to hold the government accountable.

“The government talks about empowering youth politically, but that only happens for the elite, something that’s very frustrating for the other youth,” a young activist complained at a recent seminar supported by the Washington-based democracy assistance group.

The endowment directly supports programs to increase youth participation in the political process, working with the al-Hewar Foundation for Democratic Development and other local partners.

Threats to media freedom and independence have also emerged as concerns for the NED-affiliated Center for International Media Assistance and Reporters Without Borders.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010- 12:00 p.m. “The Case for Business in Developing Economies.”

Business is regularly portrayed in public discourse as morally deficient and prone to despoil the environment, undermine democracy, and stunt development. Ann Bernstein will explain why such ill-founded views, prevalent in rich countries, are especially harmful to the world’s poor. She will criticize misguided campaigns to transform the way business behaves — such as the corporate social responsibility movement — and the acquiescence of business in those efforts. Instead the author calls on business leaders to stand up for themselves; vigorously promote market economics; and defend the role of companies as the powerful instruments of progress, innovation, and development that they are.   To register for this event, email events@cato.org, fax (202) 371-0841, or call (202) 789-5229. Please arrive early. Cato Institute, 1000 Massachusetts Avenue NW, F.A. Hayek Auditorium, Washington, D.C.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010- 6:30 p.m.-8:00 p.m. “Celebrate RFE’s 60^th Anniversary!” Sixty years ago, RFE launched its first broadcast from the Empire State Building with a pledge to deliver the news “in the American tradition of free speech.” Six decades later, 20 million people in 21 countries – from Russia to the Middle East – still depend on RFE. Around the world, BBG news organizations — RFE, VOA, Radio Free Asia, Radio/TV Marti, Radio Sawa, and Alhurra — have a combined weekly audience of more than 171 million people. On this historic RFE anniversary, recently confirmed BBG Chairman Isaacson will outline his vision for the future of U.S. international broadcasting. The event will take place at The Newseum – Knight Conference Center, 8th Floor, located at 555 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001. To RSVP please go to dc-response@rferl.org<mailto:dc-response@rferl.org> or 202-457-6949

Wednesday, September 29, 2010- 9:00 a.m. “Towards a Palestinian State: Is Institution-Building Succeeding?”

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s government is midway through an ambitious two-year plan to build the necessary infrastructure for a viable Palestinian state.  One-year on, our panelists assess its progress.  Are Palestinian institutions approaching readiness for statehood?  What obstacles exist to progress on the ground? How does the state-building track align with the negotiating track, and what are the challenges or opportunities presented by the coinciding one-year goal for completion of direct peace talks?  Panelists will include Howard Sumka of the U.S. Agency for International Development; Nathan Brown of CEIP; Neil Kritz and Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen of USIP; and Ghaith Al-Omari of the American Task Force on Palestine. The event will take place at 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact Lauren Sucher, 202-429-3822, lsucher@usip.org<mailto:lsucher@usip.org.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010- 10:30 a.m. “Promoting Political Reform in Lebanon: Opportunities and Challenges.” 

Over the past fifteen months, Lebanon has held two critical elections: the June 2009 parliamentary elections and the May 2010 municipal elections. Limited but important electoral reforms accompanied both polls, and the elections could mark the beginning of Lebanon’s transition to a stable democracy. Many view electoral and other political reforms as critical to managing Lebanon’s complex sectarian diversity. Lebanese Interior Minister Ziad Baroud will discuss the pursuit of political reform in Lebanon from his unique vantage point as a longstanding civil society activist who was subsequently appointed as Interior Minister. Tamara Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern affairs, will offer a US policy perspective on the opportunities and challenges of democracy promotion in Lebanon, placing Lebanon in a broader regional context of US democracy promotion strategy in the Middle East. Richard Chambers, Chief of Party in Lebanon for IFES, will provide remarks from the perspective of an on-the-ground democracy promotion organization, working towards long term electoral reform and strengthened election administration in Lebanon. The event will take place at the Beacon Hotel, 1615 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact Lauren Sucher, 202-429-3822, lsucher@usip.org<mailto:lsucher@usip.org  [ RSVP required.]

Wednesday, September 29, 2010- 12:00 p.m. “Covering Corruption: The Difficulties of Trying to Make a Difference.”

It is often taken for granted that a free press shining a light on wrongdoing is the way to control corruption. Brave journalists around the world have endured threats and attacks and have even died reporting about corruption. Yet only recently have news organizations begun asking whether what they are doing is making any difference, particularly in states where democracy is weak or non-existent.  Where police and politicians are among the corrupt, the courts are bound by the powerful, and people have come to accept petty bribery and gifting as normal, what can journalists do? A new CIMA report by Rosemary Armao, Covering Corruption: The Difficulties of Trying to Make a Difference, examines the impact of reporting about the topic on the incidence of corruption, asking whether and how media have an effect in bringing about reform and better governance. It also explores reporting methods that lead to civil action and reform while keeping journalists safe, and suggests training approaches for media development organizations and educational institutions. The event will take place at NED, 1025 F Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact 202-378-9700, mailto:info@ned.org RSVP to cima@ned.org with your name and affiliation.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010- 12:15 p.m.-1:45 p.m. “Between Religion and Politics”

As Islamist movements in the Arab world become more politically active, they are struggling to pursue their moral and religious agenda while navigating daily political tussles. In the face of repressive regimes, they have achieved some popular support, but enjoyed few—if any—concrete successes, write Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy. In their new book Between Religion and Politics, Brown and Hamzawy analyze Islamist movements in Egypt, Morocco, Yemen, Jordan, Palestine, and Kuwait and how they have failed to satisfy their political and religious constituencies. Nathan Brown and Amr Hamzawy will discuss their new book. Marwan Muasher will moderate. Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW. For more information and to RSVP please visit here.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010- 2:00 p.m.-4:00 p.m. “Legal Hooliganism- Is the Yukos Show Trial Finally Over?”

U.S. Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD), Chairman of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (U.S. Helsinki Commission), and Co-Chairman Congressman Alcee L. Hastings (D-FL) announced they will convene a briefing featuring the lead courtroom attorney from the Moscow trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.In cooperation with Freedom House, this U.S. Helsinki Commission event will explore what the second trial of Russia’s most prominent oligarch says about the rule of law in Russia. The event will take place at 1539 Longworth House Office Building, Washington, DC. Please RSVP here.

Thursday, September 30, 2010- 10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m. “A Modern Narrative for Muslim Women in the Middle East”

Al-Souhail, and Husseini, along with Saudi Professor Fawziah Al-Baker, profiled their home countries as part of the publication, “A Modern Narrative for Muslim Women in the Middle East.” Al-Hani will be joining these women on the panel to speak on Saudi Arabia. Their testimonies and recommendations will reflect on the social, economic, political, legal, and religious conditions unique to the women’s movements in these nations. Coffee and cookies will be served outside the conference room starting at 9:30 a.m.Please RSVP to mep@wilsoncenter.org or fax 202-691-4184.  Seating is limited. Seats are available on a first-come, first-served basis. The event will take place at the Woodrow Wilson Center at One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW. For more information or to RSVP please go here.

Thursday, September 30, 2010- 12:00 p.m. “Russia and the Rule of Law”

In 2003, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once one of Russia’s wealthiest businessmen as head of YUKOS Oil, was arrested on what most analysts considered trumped up and politically motivated charges of multi-billion ruble tax evasion. The Economist described these charges as “Kafkaesque.”  Khodorkovsky’s second trial is likely to wind up this fall. The Khodorkovsky case exemplifies the abuse of the legal system, the state’s blatant role in property confiscation and redistribution, and wide-spread state corruption, all of which continue to rage in Putin’s Russia despite growing internal and international skepticism. Hudson Institute invites you to attend a discussion of the state of the rule of law in Russia. Joining this panel discussion will be lead defense attorney for Khodorkovsky, Vadim Klyuvgant; Hudson Institute Senior Fellow David Satter; and Andrei Piontkovsky, author of Russian Identity. The event will be moderated by S. Enders Wimbush, Senior Vice President, Hudson Institute. The event will take place at the Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, Sixth Floor, Washington, D.C. For more information or to RSVP please contact 202-223-7770; [Note: RSVP to events@hudson.org<mailto:events@hudson.org> with your name and affiliation.]

Thursday, September 30, 2010- 12:15 p.m. “Corruption in Yemen.”

Corruption is the root cause of Yemen’s stagnated growth, wasting vital resources, time, and human capabilities. Combating corruption should be a central part of any strategy to reduce instability and improve the lives of Yemeni citizens. The Center for International Private Enterprise’s new documentary, “Destructive Beast,” is a groundbreaking film exposing the economic and social costs of corruption in Yemen. The 40-minute film captures the scale of the abuse of power, neglect, bribery, wasted public resources, and favoritism that have so ravaged that country’s development and stability. Abdulwahab Alkebsi will discuss the issues the film highlights. Christopher Boucek will moderate. This film was produced with the support from the National Endowment for Democracy. The event will take place at CEIP, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact 202-483-7600; http://www.CarnegieEndowment.org.

Thursday, September 30, 2010- 12:30 p.m. “Measuring Inequality: The Human Opportunity Index.”

The Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC); and the World Bank will be holding a seminar on “Measuring Inequality: The Human Opportunity Index,” which is designed to measure differences in access to opportunities within and among countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Participants will include Marcelo Guigale and Carolina Renteria of the World Bank; Robert Kaufman of Rutgers University; and Jeni Klugman of the United Nations Development Program. The event will take place at WWC, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, Ronald Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact 202-691-4000; [Note: RSVP requested. A live webcast will be available online: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/lap] 

Thursday, September 30, 2010- 3 p.m. “Merchants of Modernity: Business, Development, and Democracy in Developing Countries.”

In her new book, The Case for Business in Developing Economies, former Reagan-Fascell Fellow Ann Bernstein argues that “just doing business” can have unintended positive consequences for society. These include potentially transforming the trajectory of national economies; boosting the forces for modernization; strengthening civil society; expanding human rights and the rule of law; and unleashing pressures for democratization. In this sense business, far from being a conservative force supporting the status quo or an essentially malign power that needs to pay a social penalty to offset the negative consequences of its pursuit of profit, is a constant agent of social change.

Please join us as Ms. Bernstein explains her argument that economic rationality inadvertently leads to individuals with modern attitudes and to the creation of civil society, which in turn facilitate human rights, pluralism, and democracy. The market, she contends, is a driver of democratic development. The event will take place at the National Endowment for Democracy, 1025 F Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact 202-378-9700, info@ned.org<mailto:info@ned.org>; [Note: RSVP to forum@ned.org<mailto:forum@ned.org> with your name and affiliation by September 28.]

Friday, October 1, 2010- 9:00 a.m. “Democracy and Politics in Venezuela”

The Inter-American Dialogue and the Open Society Institute will be holding a discussion on democracy and politics in Venezuela, focusing on the findings of a recent Centro Gumilla study on changing perceptions of democracy in Venezuela and Latin America. Participants will include Father Jose Virtuoso, executive director of the Venezuelan research center Centro Gumilla and recently appointed dean of the Universidad Catolica Andres Bello; and Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuelan ambassador to the United States. The event will take place at the Inter-American Dialogue, 1211 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 510, Washington, D.C. For more information please contact 202-822-9002.

1 October 2010, 3:30 – 5:00 p.m. The Korean Workers’ Party Third Conference: What is it all About?

Amid speculation on political succession, economic uncertainties in the wake of devastating floods and ambitious plans to become a “strong and prosperous nation” by the 2012 centennial of founding leader Kim Il Sung’s birth, the Korean Worker’s Party is set to convene its Third Conference on September 28, the first of its kind since 1966.

Despite the attention the event has captured in the world media, judging from the level of discussion on the upcoming gathering, few know what to expect. What does the conference mean for the KWP, long suspected of having been sidelined by the military in the “Songun,” or “military-first” era? Why a conference, as opposed to a party congress? What is the difference? What outcomes might we reasonably expect from the conference in terms of economic reform, political succession, etc.? How should we interpret the delay in convening the event?

Ryoo Kihljae, professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul and Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars will address these and related questions, providing essential context by analyzing the first two party conferences in 1958 and 1966, and offering suggestions about possible results for the upcoming political gathering.

1 October 2010, 3:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m. 5th Floor Conference Room, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC.

Thursday, October 7, 2010. The Elusive Synthesis: Exploring the Changing Relationship Between Democracy Support and Development Aid. Panelists: Thomas Carothers, Scott Hubli, Brian Levy. Moderator: Marc F. Plattner, Co-editor, Journal of Democracy.

The once relatively separate communities of democracy aid and development aid have in recent years become increasingly interconnected. Developmentalists acknowledge the importance of taking politics into account and accept governance as a factor in developmental success. Democracy aid providers embrace the need to shape their efforts to “help democracy deliver” on the socioeconomic front. Yet within each of these communities uncertainty and at times ambivalence still mark attitudes about the other. Do the growing ties between the two domains constitute a process of integration or even synthesis? What are the most important areas of common ground and the most significant differences? What does it mean to integrate democracy goals into a larger developmental agenda?

To mark the publication of a set of articles on this topic in the October 2010 issue of the Journal of Democracy, and the publication a new Journal of Democracy book, Debates on Democratization (Johns Hopkins Press), the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Journal of Democracy are cosponsoring a panel discussion on this topic featuring the authors of the articles in the October 2010 Journal forum on democracy and development.

12:15 to 1:45 pm (Lunch from 12 pm). Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202 483 7600. Fax: 202 483 1840. Email: info@ceip.org

Thomas Carothers is the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Scott Hubli is the director of governance programs at the National Democratic Institute (NDI). Brian Levy is currently an adviser on public sector governance at the World Bank. Moderator Marc F. Plattner is founding coeditor of the Journal of Democracy, vice-president for research and studies at the National Endowment for Democracy and director of the International Forum for Democratic Studies.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010- 6:00 p.m. “Paradoxes of the New Authoritarianism”

Ivan Krastev will deliver the 2010 Seymour Martin Lipset Lecture on Democracy in the World. Krastev, the chairman of Bulgaria’s Centre for Liberal Strategies will discuss Paradoxes of the New Authoritarianism. (Reception to follow). The event will take place at The Embassy of Canada, 501 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW., Washington, DC. RSVP (acceptances only) by October 13 to (202) 378-9675 or email forum@ned.org Photo ID required.

 Monday, November 15, 2010 “Preventing Genocide and Mass Atrocities: Goals and Challenges of International Cooperation.”

The Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Committee on Conscience will be hosting a symposium, Preventing Genocide and Mass Atrocities: Goals and Challenges of International Cooperation, to be held on November 15, 2010, in Paris, France. If you are planning to attend, please contact by September 27, Nadia Ficara at nficara@ushmm.org<mailto:nficara@ushmm.org.

The listing was compiled by Hannah Egerton.