The death of Ethiopian Prime MinisterMeles Zenawi raises fresh questions about the future of US aid to the country and the conundrum of focusing aid in countries whose leaders hang on to power, write the Center for Global Development’s Sarah Jane Staats and Casey Dunning. Could a new rule banning foreign aid to long-serving heads of state help?
Meles’s death may unveil the results of the United States’ development bet in Ethiopia. US policymakers and aid watchers are paying close attention to the transition of power and the future of US presidential development initiatives in the country.
It’s understandable why the United States and other donors cultivate aid partnerships with long-serving heads of state. But there are risks to such an approach—for the donor and in terms of the impact on the recipient country—and these are most obvious when there is a sudden leadership change, as has happened now in Ethiopia.
Could these risks be avoided if the United States and other donors refused to provide aid to low-income countries with leaders in power for longer than three terms or twelve years? Nicolas van de Walle urges donors to do just that. His empirical research shows the longer a leader is in power, the less likely he is to lose power or govern well. He explained in a January 2011 blog post:
The risk of losing power for a head of state declines over time: the longer a leader is in power, the less likely he is to lose power in the next year, no matter how long he has been in power (and, he is the right pronoun here: they are nearly always men). Over time, they get better at staying in power. Nonetheless, it is also true that the longer a dictator is in power, the less well he governs……
That is why I have long argued that the imposition of presidential term limits is perhaps the single most important measure to improve the governance and economic performance of developing countries. I have recommended that the Western donors send a strong signal that “presidents for life” are no longer acceptable by withholding foreign aid to any low-income country with a leader in power longer than three terms or 12 years.
Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compaoré (in power since 1987) and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame (in power since 2000) could be added to the list. In an era of budget austerity and given the Presidential Policy Directive on US Global Development that urges greater selectivity in US development spending, could this be a good place to start changing the way (or where) the United States gives aid? At a minimum, the MCC board could, and should, consider the 12-year rule when selecting countries as eligible for its good-governance-approved assistance.