The establishment of the world’s newest state attracted global attention last week when South Sudan finally seceded from the North. The south’s future has been widely discussed, but the split’s impact on the north has received less attention.
Credit: BBC
Addressing Sudan’s National Assembly last week, President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir promised a freer, more inclusive government. But, with the UN today warning that war crimes may have been committed in the South Kordofan region (right), some observers believe reform is unlikely without international pressure.
“It’s time to move in a more radical direction,” says Sudan campaigner John Prendergast, a former Clinton administration official. “The problem is the regime in Khartoum. We’ve taken action in Egypt, Libya and now Syria; the next target should be Sudan.”
Think Africa Press asked four experts, including Sonja Uwimana, the National Endowment for Democracy‘s assistant program officer for Sudan, to gauge prospects for the north’s second republic. Will it see genuine reform or compulsory “Arabization” of minorities? This is her contribution.
It bears repeating that 9 July 2011 saw the emergence of not one, but two, new countries. While the citizens of South Sudan continue to celebrate their hard-won independence, and begin to tackle the challenges that lay ahead, in the remaining Sudan, there hangs an air of uncertainty about the coming period. This Sudan may also be new, but its problems are not. In fact, South Sudan’s independence now brings into stark relief the many other regions and populations of Sudan that have been consistently marginalised and denied full political participation by the central government, including Darfur, the east, the north and the two areas, Blue Nile and South Kordofan, where a war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the northern sector of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army has been raging since early June.
Of course, what South Sudan’s independence also brings is an opportunity to finally address this gross imbalance and pave the way for meaningful democratic change in Sudan. Judging from his most recent speech, in which he announced a freer “second republic,” perhaps President Omar Al-Bashir understands this as well. But these are promises that have been made before—promises that have gone unfulfilled. It’s not clear that this time will be any different, particularly as Bashir contends with growing (and public) divisions within his ruling National Congress Party, which make it clear that the party itself has no clear roadmap for the way forward. Neither are the major opposition parties calling for democratic transformation, further proving themselves to be both extremely weak and increasingly lost. Meanwhile, food and fuel prices have been rising steadily since the start of the year, and for most ordinary Sudanese, this will soon become unmanageable.
None of this was lost on many of the Sudanese people I spoke with in Khartoum recently, people for whom the separation of South Sudan fundamentally represented the absolute failure of the country’s political leaders to create a Sudan unified in all its ethnic, religious, cultural and racial diversity. When it comes to Sudan, we often make the mistake of associating the government with the people, which does them a great disservice. Yet, if we are to consider what Sudan’s “second republic” will look like, then it is to them, the Sudanese people, that we should turn. Sudanese civil society, especially, cannot be underestimated or overlooked. Many played an instrumental role as educators, monitors and observers during Sudan’s 2010 national elections, and they remain committed to a vision of a truly democratic Sudan, despite the many setbacks they’ve faced. Among them is a younger, more cosmopolitan generation of activists who have learned from the previous generation’s mistakes—made all the more real by the loss of their southern Sudanese friends—and are finding new and innovative ways to address Sudan’s challenges.
We may not see them on Twitter or Facebook but they are making their voices heard through music, film, and other forms of the visual arts, as well as other mediums. So, while no one can predict what the coming period will bring for Sudan, this will not deter those who are engaged in the laborious and un-sexy work of bringing about the kind of fundamental change that takes generations to occur. In the immediate, this change will come in the form of a new constitution for this new Sudan. Various rumors are swirling about what the government has in store for this process, but civil society has already come together to demand an inclusive, participatory and transparent process. If the government merely produces yet another wasted opportunity, they may find that they’ve wasted their last.
