“Nothing is as dangerous as allowing the same citizen to remain in power for a long time,” said Venezuela’s founding father, Simón Bolívar. But, as President Hugo Chávez’s victory in last weekend’s referendum allows him to run for reelection indefinitely, his Bolivarian revolution is defying its supposed inspiration.
Chávez won more than 54% of the vote, according to preliminary assessments, renewing concern at the attrition of the country’s democratic institutions. But there is some consolation for the democratic opposition. Despite significant abuse of state resources to rally support and a campaign marked by violence and intimidation of his critics, Chávez’s support remained at approximately the same level as November’s provincial elections and considerably below the 63% secured in the 2006, presidential election.
The opposition was wrong-footed by the timing of the referendum, deliberately scheduled before newly-elected governors could consolidate their support and marshal fresh resources for another campaign. Chávez was tactically adept in delinking the extension of term limits from more radical reforms that sank his 2007 attempt to end term limits, notes Miriam Kornblith, the National Endowment for Democracy’s regional director, and in applying the change to public offices other than the presidency.
The incumbent can now stand in the next presidential election in 2012 and has vowed to remain in office until 2049. But his re-election is by no means a foregone conclusion as the economic crisis threatens to deplete the resources available for the regime’s extensive social programs and political patronage.
“I don’t have the slightest doubt that the deterioration of Chávez’s support will continue through the next presidential election,” said Teodoro Petkoff, a former left-wing revolutionary and Cabinet minister. He criticized the National Electoral Commission’s “brutal tolerance” of the abuse of state resources during the referendum and widespread blackmailing of public employees and the poor, threatened with the loss of their jobs or welfare benefits.
Some observers believe the referendum will lead to further radicalization as the regime seeks to exploit its new political capital. “We are going to see Chávez taking advantage of this to do radical things very quickly,” said Luis Vicente León, of the Datanalisis polling company: “I think they are going to try and control the food industry, the financial and insurance sectors.”
But economists believe that revenue shortfalls caused by collapsing oil prices will force the government to reduce spending, increase taxes and devalue the bolivar, measures that will undermine Chávez’s popularity and possibly foster divisions within his fractious coalition.
Investors query the country’s ability to pay its $46 billion of debt, especially since government spending has expanded to the equivalent of 36 percent of GDP in 2007 from 23 percent in 1998. “Because of the macroeconomic weaknesses, social and political tensions could at any moment disrupt governance and oil shipments,” analysts suggest.
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